In the final few weeks of the presidential race, some polls and prediction markets are indicating we could have Donald Trump back in office come January 2025. For the first time since August, the former president overtook Vice President Kamala Harris in The Economist’s statistical model of America’s presidential election, and some other news outlets and political forecasters are predicting the same outcome.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and PredictIt also show Trump winning the election, but by a much steeper margin than some of the polls. As of Wednesday, Polymarket users have indicated Trump has nearly a 64% chance of winning the election, with Harris trailing at just 36%. PredictIt shows Trump in the lead with a 59% chance and Harris at 43%.
