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Fortune

Christiaan Hetzner

Polymarket bets tilt toward a Trump victory—but how accurate is it?

Polymarket Donald Trump Peter Thiel Shayne Coplan United States

Donald Trump (Credit: Drew Angerer—Getty Images)

Polymarket odds offer a useful gauge for predicting the upcoming election, but there are significant caveats.

Real-time prediction markets can react faster than polls, making them a key part of the 24/7 news cycle leading up to the Nov. 5 vote. However, Polymarket, a four-year-old crypto-based platform, lacks the liquidity of the capital markets it’s often compared to.

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