Veteran pollster J. Ann Selzer has announced her departure from election polling after her pre-election poll in Iowa inaccurately showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of President-elect Donald Trump in a state he had previously won easily in 2016 and 2020.
Selzer explained in an op-ed in the Des Moines Register that she had made the decision to transition to other ventures and opportunities after her latest election poll. She expressed pride in her work for various organizations interested in elections, despite the unexpected results of her final poll.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll published on November 2 indicated Harris leading Trump by 3 percentage points, a significant shift from previous polling that had Trump in the lead. Trump had won Iowa decisively in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Selzer admitted that the results were shocking and acknowledged that her history of accuracy over 30 years of polling may have led to complacency in interpreting the data. She emphasized the humbling nature of polling as a science of estimation and expressed gratitude for the support of friends and family during the scrutiny following the poll.
Following the election, Selzer faced criticism and questions about the integrity of her polling methods. She responded by suggesting that the unexpected findings may have inadvertently energized Republican voters to support Trump, rather than manipulating the data to show a false lead for Harris.
The inaccurate poll set off a media frenzy in the final days of the 2024 election, with pundits and commentators reacting to the surprising results. Despite the backlash and mockery on social media, Selzer remained reflective and open to learning from the experience.
In conclusion, J. Ann Selzer's departure from election polling marks the end of an era for a respected pollster known for her accuracy and insights in the field. Her final poll may have been a misstep, but it serves as a reminder of the complexities and uncertainties inherent in the science of polling.
