Support for the voice to parliament stands at about 41% and falling, according to Guardian Australia’s poll tracker. Yes supporters might hope the polls are wrong, but they would need to be off by 10% or more for the yes vote to achieve the double majority necessary for the referendum to pass.
That would be an error almost three times larger than what occurred in the 2019 federal election. Such a polling error is possible, but it’s very unlikely and there is nothing to suggest it, according to pollsters and election analysts who spoke to Guardian Australia.
