Peru's Food Supply Faces a 50% Hit From El Niño — Just as U.S. Remittances Slow Down

A potato saleswoman counts bills product of her sales in Lima's Santa Anita Market during the morning sale session on September 21, 2022. In Lima's Santa Anita Market, sellers and buyers are anxious about the rising prices of potatoes, a staple food in the Peruvian diet, which is becoming unaffordable for the poorest families. Each Peruvian consumes an average of two kilos of potatoes per week, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, but prices have tripled in recent months as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Credit: Photo by Cris BOURONCLE / AFP) (Photo by CRIS BOURONCLE/AFP via Getty Images)

• Peru's ENFEN climate panel now puts the odds of an "extraordinary" Niño Costero at 62% between September 2026 and January 2027, with the sharpest heat expected in November and December.
• Farm group Conveagro warns that up to 2.2 million hectares — roughly a fifth to a third of Peru's farmland — are at risk, with food-production estimates ranging from 40% to 50% depending on which Conveagro statement is cited.
• The Central Reserve Bank expects a record $5.515 billion in remittances for 2026, but growth has cooled to just 1.7% in the first half of the year, partly because of a new 1% U.S. federal tax on cash transfers.
• Peru's north-central anchovy fleet had its entire first 2026 season canceled in August after months of unusually warm water kept the fish out of reach.

Peru is bracing for two shocks at once. Government scientists say the ocean off its coast is heating up fast enough to trigger a rare "extraordinary" El Niño, right as the flow of money from relatives working in the United States — the financial cushion millions of households lean on — loses momentum.