When you look at interception totals for quarterbacks, they can be misleading in both directions. There are quarterbacks with great interception luck, and others who get no breaks at all.
Throughout most of his career, Patrick Mahomes has had exceptional interception luck. This was especially true in 2020.
Patrick Mahomes had 19 dropped interceptions in 2020. pic.twitter.com/cmC8BJx8Lo
— QB Data Mine (@QBDataMine) April 16, 2021
Last season, Mahomes wasn’t quite as fortunate — per Football Outsiders, he had 10 dropped interceptions, and a drop in good fortune was one reason Mahomes wasn’t quite as efficient as he had been in previous years.
Against the Chargers on Thursday night, Mahomes’ interception luck didn’t just catch back up to him — it caught back up to him on two consecutive plays, and four plays overall.
Let’s start with the pick Mahomes threw with 13:38 left in the first half. It looked as if he threw a pick to safety Nasir Adderley, but cornerback Bryce Callahan was called for illegal contact, and the play was negated.
This was a bit of a specious call.
how is this a penalty on the defense??? pic.twitter.com/6QOffS5jj4
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 16, 2022
Then, with 9:52 left in the third quarter, Mahomes appeared to throw a deep pass to receiver Mecole Hardman that Hardman couldn’t hang onto, and the ball dropped into the hands of safety Derwin James on an acrobatic play. But offsetting penalties killed the play.
interception luck, part 1 pic.twitter.com/JMdQdOieDz
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 16, 2022
And then on the very next play, Mahomes threw a pick right to cornerback Asante Samuel Jr., but it was ruled that Samuel didn’t hold onto the ball.
interception luck, part 2 pic.twitter.com/KBG4qwPwrV
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 16, 2022
And THEN, with 34 seconds left in the third quarter, Mahomes tried to hit tight end Jody Fortson in the end zone, and Samuel was all over it… until he just dropped the ball.
Patrick Mahomes should fly to Vegas immediately after this is over. I have never seen one quarterback get bailed out of four interceptions in one game. pic.twitter.com/d0VaAsh3zV
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 16, 2022
Has Samuel held onto the ball, it might have been a 99-yard pick-six…
…which is exactly what Justin Herbert of the Chargers threw to Chiefs rookie cornerback Jaylen Watson on the very next drive.
How a go-ahead Pick-6 in the 4th quarter looks at Arrowhead Stadium. 🎥💪#LACvsKC on Prime Video
Also available on NFL+ https://t.co/Fa02SqOP1P pic.twitter.com/7d3wzVxaQ7— NFL (@NFL) September 16, 2022
Mahomes is a great quarterback, but if you add this kind of luck to the equation… what’s that they say about how it’s better to be lucky than good? It’s certainly better to be both! On the three drives that contained all four of these non-picks, the Chiefs scored all 17 of their points so far, and Watson’s pick-six put them ahead in the game for the first time.
