The Green Bay Packers had an opportunity to begin separating themselves in a crowded NFC playoff picture, but a disappointing loss to the New York Giants makes them one of five teams at 6-7 fighting for the seventh seed.
If the season ended today, the Packers would be in as the final wildcard team via tiebreaker.
“It’s definitely disappointing,” said quarterback Jordan Love of the loss after the game. “Just looking at what we’ve got in front of us, but like we say all the time, just take it one week at a time. To come up short, with plenty of opportunities to win that game, just didn’t execute good enough, so it’s disappointing for sure.”
Here is a complete look at the top-to-bottom NFC standings:
1 San Francisco 10-3
2. Dallas 10-3
3. Detroit 9-4
4. Tampa Bay 6-7
5. Philadelphia 10-3
6. Minnesota 7-6
7. Green Bay 6-7
8. Los Angeles 6-7
9. Seattle 6-7
10. Atlanta 6-7
11. New Orleans 6-7
12. New York 5-8
13. Chicago 5-8
14. Washington 4-9
15. Arizona 3-10
16. Carolina 1-12
Despite the loss to the Giants, the Packers still hold the seventh seed at the moment. According to ESPN, this is because Green Bay has a better head-to-head win percentage over the Rams and a better conference win percentage over Atlanta.
With five teams sitting at 6-7, the tie-breakers to determine the current standings are a bit convoluted. However, keep in mind that as the season unfolds, if it comes down to it, the Packers have the head-to-head tie-breakers over the Rams and Saints, but that advantage goes to the Falcons for their Week 2 win. Green Bay is now 4-4 in the NFC following Monday’s loss, another oftentimes key factor in the tie-breaker formula.
In the grand scheme of the NFC playoff race, this loss had major implications for the Packers. A win, according to the New York Times playoff predictor, would have had the Packers’ playoff chances in the 80 percent range. But following the loss, it is now a coin flip at 50 percent.
By this predictor, the Packers still control their own destiny. Winning out gives them a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs. Finishing 3-1 depending on who they lose to, gives Green Bay a 90-96 percent chance of making it. Finishing 2-2, however, drops their playoff chances to just 15 percent.
The 2023 Packers are a prime example of how quickly things can change week-to-week in the NFL. Following a four-game losing streak, Green Bay won four of five, including two in a row against Detroit and Kansas City, before laying a mistake-prone egg in their matchup with New York. This was a game where the Packers failed in all three phases with a litany of miscues, and nothing – not even the simple things – came easy.
“You’ve got to execute,” said Matt LaFleur postgame, “and you’ve got to play good football. You’ve got to play complementary football. It’s got to be all three phases. I thought we were hurt early in the game with too many penalties.
“But you could look and nitpick each phase of the game. Special teams wasn’t good enough. Defense wasn’t good enough. Offense wasn’t good enough. All three collectively, and when you’re bad in all three phases, you lose the game.”
Coming into Week 14, the Packers had the second easiest remaining strength of schedule based on win percentage. Only the 7-6 Vikings have a winning record, while the combined record of Green Bay’s remaining opponents is just 22-33. However, if the Packers’ execution doesn’t improve coming off this Giants game, the quality of the opponent may not matter a whole lot.
With that said, if there is one thing we’ve learned about this Packers team, it’s that, along with their inexperience, this is a resilient group as well. They’ll again have to show that over the final month of the season.
“It’s the same thing we’ve talked about all season,” added Love, “how do we bounce back? How do we respond? It’s showing up to work next week with a clean slate, ready to go, and get ready for Tampa Bay.”
