The Green Bay Packers started 4-8 and needed come-from-behind victories over the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins during a current three-game win streak to get to 7-8. With two more wins, the Packers are likely headed back to the playoffs.
Here’s the big question: Are the Packers a middling football team that is just taking advantage of an opportunity in a conference that lacks depth, or is Matt LaFleur’s team getting hot at the right time and becoming a potentially dangerous playoff team in the NFC?
Some of the advanced numbers suggest the latter might be true.
We’ll first use Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) to help explain. Here’s a quick primer on DVOA, which compares a team’s efficiency in all situations based on opponent and the league average. It’s a useful tool for evaluating teams with important context but also without bias.
Consider this: Over the last five weeks, the Packers rank fourth in overall DVOA, behind only the 49ers, Bills and Eagles. Green Bay is seventh in total offense DVOA, second in rushing offense DVOA, first in passing defense DVOA and fourth in special teams DVOA.
Five weeks isn’t enough for you? Ok, let’s go back to Week 10, when Christian Watson first stepped onto the scene as a breakout star.
Since then, the Packers are sixth in overall DVOA, seventh in total offense DVOA, eighth in passing offense DVOA, second in rushing offense DVOA, third in passing defense DVOA and sixth in special teams DVOA.
Keep in mind, DVOA is opponent-adjusted. The Packers are 3-1 over the last five weeks and 4-2 since Week 10, and they haven’t necessarily faced a gauntlet schedule down the stretch. But they’ve played exceedingly well even when adjusting for quality of opponent. That’s important when projecting forward.
The offense’s revival has been encouraging. Over the last seven weeks, the Packers rank sixth in expected points added per play on offense, suggesting the offense is truly coming around to end the season.
Even over the past five weeks, the Packers have averaged 27.8 points per game despite Aaron Rodgers having four interceptions and a 85.0 passer rating during the stretch.
Running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have been terrific, the receiving corps finally got healthy and the offensive line settled in. The defense has produced 12 takeaways since Week 10, and Keisean Nixon provided a massive jolt in the return game on special teams.
The numbers paint the picture of a team that has found its footing on offense, can run the football on offense and stop the pass on defense, and will provide winning plays (without disasters) on special teams.
The Packers can be inconsistent and frustrating on both sides of the ball, and this is still one of the worst teams in the NFL defending the run, but they might have found a formula for competing with any team left in the field.
It’s worth noting that over the last seven weeks, the Packers took down the Cowboys in overtime, went punch for punch with the Eagles in Philadelphia and stunned the Dolphins in Miami.
The Packers have a lot of work to do yet – wins over the Vikings and Lions are far from guaranteed – but Green Bay appears to be playing its best ball at the right time. Even as the seventh seed, the Packers could be a dangerous team entering the NFC playoff field.
