The least of Andy Burnham’s worries as he prepares for the UN General Assembly in New York, and his first meeting with Donald Trump, is what he has said about the US president in the past.
Before he became prime minister, Mr Burnham was certainly critical of the president, taking the view in 2021 for example that “any politician who gave Trump the time of day should be ashamed right now”.
Yet it is a curious feature of Mr Trump’s generally vengeful personality that he doesn’t allow things said in the past to get in the way of business. After all, and despite some mildly disobliging remarks made in the past, Sir Keir Starmer managed to forge a surprisingly warm relationship with his counterpart, at least in the earlier phase of his premiership. Until the Iran war and disagreements about “civilisational erasure” in Europe soured the bromance, Sir Keir, ably assisted by Buckingham Palace, enjoyed a brief career as world champion “Trump whisperer”. That ended with the president dismissing Sir Keir as “no Winston Churchill”.
A still more dramatic example of Mr Trump’s flexibility was witnessed in the avuncular welcome to the Oval Office President Trump offered to a freshly elected mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York, the two men having previously traded some rather spicy banter – “fascist despot” and “100 per cent Communist lunatic” respectively. Now Mr Mamdani will play formal and generous host at his own official residence of Gracie Mansion to one of the city’s more famous sons. The first-term Trump rapprochement with Kim Jong-un was almost as incredible.
So, provided Mr Trump judges, as ever, that Mr Burnham is someone prepared to flatter him and be useful to him, whatever differences the two men have had can be discounted. From what we know of this most personable and polite of prime ministers, Mr Burnham will certainly try his utmost to show due deference and make the most of where they do agree – and Mr Burnham has a certain knack of saying the right things to please people, even if subsequently they may tend to get disappointed.
The prime minister has already made a start on this task in his two previous telephone conversations with the president, with the assurance given that he will indeed be extending oil and gas production in the North Sea, as advised by the White House. The precise extent of this “new” drilling can be glossed over in true Burnhamian style.
The British have also tried to pre-empt any of the usual US criticism about their defence spending by announcing, in concert with the Americans, a UK-US “AI and Autonomy partnership”. This collaboration will, according to No 10, “help the UK protect critical national infrastructure, from sea lanes to airspace – enabling us to detect threats and deter our adversaries using the latest AI technology developed on both sides of the Atlantic… accelerating the delivery of trusted, interoperable capabilities that enhance deterrence and both countries' technological edge”.
Indeed, artificial intelligence will also be the theme of Mr Burnham’s speech to the General Assembly, at a moment of opportunity for all the world’s major players to find a mutually advantageous way of controlling the emerging risk of the technology Mr Trump prefers to call “superior intelligence” – a phrase Mr Burnham would be wise to adopt.
The obvious challenge is for China and America to agree on some form of restraint, if not a pause, as well as for the West to ensure that China (and thus Russia) never gains an advantage in military AI capabilities. As the home of the world’s preeminent AI quasi-regulator, the AI Security Institute, and as a minor player in its own right, Britain has a potential role to play as a “bridge” in this field. Thus, Mr Burnham can do his bit to save humanity.
Of necessity in such a busy forum, the meeting between prime minister and president will be relatively short and won’t be hugely consequential in itself. But it is important, especially as a chance for the British leader to develop a personal rapport, and to signal the issues that need to be worked on in the coming months – the wars in Ukraine and Iran, the Palestinian question, tariffs, climate change, the status of the Chagos Islands base, Northern Ireland, and the Falklands, as well as AI.
If things go spectacularly wrong, then Mr Burnham can console himself with the thought that President Trump is so unpopular in Britain, a row would probably boost Labour’s poll ratings. But that would not be in the national interest. There are many issues, most obviously intelligence, where the UK has something useful to offer the United States, and settling recent differences and misunderstandings should form the basis of a “reset” in the relationship, however “special” each side wishes to regard it.
Having been to his hometown, Mr Burnham will extend an invitation for Mr Trump to view the magnificent towers that now dominate the Manchester skyline when the city hosts the G20 summit next year – notwithstanding a quixotic pledge while mayor that Mr Trump would never be welcome there.
So long as Mr Trump can be convinced that the man he said he only knew was an “extremely liberal mayor of some town” is actually a great guy that he can do great deals with, things that nobody else thought possible, then the transatlantic alliance will be about as secure as it can be in the present circumstances.
