The Republicans are floundering after Joe Biden got dumped. A near faultless campaign blitz by Kamala Harris has liberated the Democratic Party from its funk and sent the Republicans into a doom spiral. Donald Trump can’t stop whining about the unfairness of it all. “They stole the race from Biden after he won in the primaries — A First!” he raged on social media. “These people are the real THREAT TO DEMOCRACY.”
If you say so, grandpa. The young are having a ball and the barstool bores with their beer bellies and Trump tattoos, F*** Biden flags and skull decals on their pick-up trucks have been shut out of the fun. The first post-Biden poll to emerge from Reuters/Ipsos yesterday showed Harris leading Trump by a squeaker — 44 per cent to 42 per cent — as she introduces herself to previously sceptical voters. It was only last week that the Trumpsters were feeling chipper in their Maga hats at the Republican convention in Wisconsin, grooving to old timers like “Kid” Rock and grizzled wrestling champ Hulk Hogan.
Yesterday it was Harris’s turn to be the happy warrior in the same battleground state. “I know Donald Trump’s type,” the prosecutor said to the predator. Harris, a former San Francisco district attorney, is revelling in the contrast she can draw with a convicted felon, sex abuser and fraudster. “Yes we Kam,” the crowd chanted approvingly. But Harris pivoted quickly to the voters who matter most in this election. “Building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency,” Harris said, deploying the US term for the working class. She knows she has to challenge Trump on his populist home ground.
If Trump can snap out of his gloom, he remains a formidable campaigner
If Trump can snap out of his gloom, he remains a formidable campaigner. Driving past my local ice-cream parlour with its newly erected banner, “In Trump We Trust”, was a reminder of the quasi-religious veneration he excites among his rock-solid base. For years Trump has demolished one opponent after another — has anybody seen Florida governor Ron DeSantis (formerly DeFuture) lately? The Democrats’ summer of fun could be short-lived if Harris reverts to the testy, defensive crouch she adopted in her first year as vice-president.
The fundamentals of this election haven’t changed. Harris’s path to victory runs through the largely white, working class rust belt that thwarted Hillary Clinton in 2016 and handed the White House to Trump. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin account for one-sixth of the 270 electoral college votes she needs to win. It won’t be easy. She lacks economic expertise and largely flunked her immigration portfolio, the two issues people care about most — and where Trump scores highest — while the grinding, dirty war against her sex, race and liberal values has only just begun.
On the plus side, Harris is winning the “vibes” election with a joyful, playful Gen Z campaign that has raised $250 million since Sunday. Choosing Beyoncé’s Freedom as her campaign anthem was a master stroke. TikTok has gone lime green after Charli XCX hailed Harris as a Brat and Time’s “Person of the Year” cover photo of Taylor Swift with her ragdoll cat has become the perfect pop-culture riposte to JD Vance’s sour comment about “childless cat ladies” running the country.
Trump must regret choosing Vance as his running mate. He was foisted on him by Don Jr and the tech bros, including Elon Musk, who has just reneged on his purported offer to fill Trump’s coffers with $45 million a month. Nobody wants to be on the sad sack oldsters’ losing side. Vance is only 39 but holds antediluvian views on controlling women’s bodies, adding to Harris’s ability to frame the election as a contest between the future and the past. His first solo stump speech exuded DeSantis-style low energy.
The Republicans’ early attacks on Harris have dated as fast as their old Biden merchandise. Thanks to her K-Hive of loyal internet fans, “cackling” Kamala, the label that dogged her first years in office, has been given a refresh. She can be seen laughing her head off all over social media, dancing in the rain to Rihanna’s Umbrella and revelling in her zany observation, “You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?” The criticism of her word salads has been disarmed. Good luck portraying her as “weird” next to a puffing and ranting 78-year-old Trump.
Chris LaCivita, Trump’s campaign co-manager, offered a lame excuse for the Republicans’ slow response to Harris. “We’re holding the bucket of paint to define her at a time of our choosing,” he told the Bulwark. They had better get on with it before Trump gets defined as yesterday’s man. LaCivita and other Republicans wasted the first 48 hours after Biden’s withdrawal banging on about a “coup”.
The Trump campaign also let a swamp full of conspiracy theories fester about why Biden was either faking Covid or was so sick that he was dying or already dead. The president will be able to debunk those theories when he addresses the nation tonight. Though he may feel privately embittered, Biden has embraced his “father of the nation” role after passing on the torch to Harris. “I’m watching you, kid… I love ya!” he dialled in to her first campaign meeting.
The Republicans’ early attacks on Harris have dated as fast as their old Biden merchandise
Republicans think they will be able to label Harris as Biden 2.0. “She owns the Biden record,” LaCivita said. “We’ve got everything ready for what she did as [District Attorney in San Francisco].” In San Francisco, Harris was largely considered tough on crime, including marijuana possession, but it’s complicated. Attack ads are being crafted accusing her of refusing to seek the death penalty in 2004 for a cop killer and being critical of the police during the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests. In Pennsylvania, the Republicans will seek to pound Harris for opposing fracking.
The big unknown is how much Harris’s race and sex will count for or against her on polling day. She has already been called the “DEI” (diversity, equity and inclusion) candidate, a label that is never applied to white men who have been favoured for centuries. Exhuming a favourite insult, Trump has gone after her on social media for being “dumb as a rock”, but has yet to land her with a nickname that sticks.
The old Republican playbook can not be relied on to work. Twelve out of 50 governors in the US are women, even though there has never been a female president. They benefited in 2022 from an upsurge in support from women determined to protect their abortion rights. The defiant theme of Harris’s campaign is: “We are not going back.”
