The Labour Party might insist it’s wary of complacency in the run-up to a general election. But its leader is certainly growing in confidence. Labour’s 18-point lead over the Conservatives will have undoubtedly energised Sir Keir Starmer as he stepped up to the podium at the Bristol and Bath Science Park last week to deliver his New Year’s speech. The Labour leader indulged in the opportunity to present a rather broad vision for the future, with promises of “hope”, “change” and his plan to “make a difference” signposting the 30-minute speech.
Sir Keir sounded resolute as he reiterated some of his pledges, including plans to achieve the highest growth among advanced economies and to get the NHS off its knees. What was missing from his speech, however, was any kind of information as to how he might go about making good on his promises.
The lack of policy detail wasn’t surprising. This is, after all, the roadmap Labour has used for several years now to position itself as the clear frontrunner to win the next general election. The tactic has been rather simple: stay vague, look credible. And it’s been working, until now.
But Labour’s advantage in the polls is about to become its headache, as the formal entrance into an election year means everyone wants to know what exactly the party would do if it were let back into No 10. Labour may quickly discover that it needs a revamped roadmap, as dodging questions becomes increasingly difficult to do.
Labour’s lack of policy detail tactic has been simple: stay vague, look credible. And it’s been working, until now
Sir Keir learned this the hard way when he took questions after his speech this week. When asked how exactly he would usher in his “decade of national renewal”, he insisted “these were not just words” — only to start a ramble about his “five national missions” without any details about delivery.
In a particularly muddled moment, Sir Keir acknowledged that people do ask “how are you going to achieve it” — a question he was unable to answer as soon as the party’s position on tax was raised.
It’s easy to say you oppose the freeze on tax thresholds, which works as a painful stealth tax, pulling millions of people into paying higher rates. But despite criticising the Tories for ushering in the freeze, Sir Keir avoided, once again, giving any definitive answer on what his party would do — not least because of the massive fiscal hole he’d create for himself.
According to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest report, the combination of inflation and the freezes is estimated to net the Treasury an additional £44.6 billion in tax revenue by 2029. How would Sir Keir and his shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves even begin trying to fill that gap if the freeze were to be lifted? Already struggling to find the cash to make good on its own giveaway plans (including the £28 billion a year for green investment), the last thing the party seems likely to do is create an even bigger funding gap for itself.
Tax is one of many areas where specifics seem to trouble the Labour Party. While it has been savvy enough to hold back on making any promises to junior doctors or other groups on pay, Sir Keir’s spectacular goals to tackle NHS waiting lists and improve the system for workers and patients still has almost no details attached to it, including how they might bring strike action to an end or how to address the huge inefficiencies and imbalances in the health service that were ramping up wait times and leading to poorer outcomes long before the pandemic hit.
Sir Keir will happily rattle off his plans for slapping VAT on private school fees: the kind of policy people will have an opinion on, but that no one (even its supporters) think is the answer to the country’s biggest problems. They’re similar in weight to some of the damp-squib announcements Rishi Sunak announced at party conference this year: a shake-up to A-levels will divide opinion, but these aren’t the policies that will shake up the UK’s trajectory away from stagnation and towards prosperity.
Voters increasingly want to know what will really change after the next election. The Tories appear to be pivoting towards more tax cuts. Labour will soon need its own answer. Despite Sunak hinting that the election will be held this autumn, Sir Keir’s speech was the start of every political moment being framed through the lens of an election. He and his party can’t risk looking like the only answers they have are to the fairly low-level questions.
