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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

One Nation thumps Labor to gain WA state seat of Secret Harbour at byelection

With nearly all votes counted in Saturday’s Western Australian state byelection for Secret Harbour, the ABC’s results give One Nation 39.1% of the primary vote (up a huge 30.6% since the March 2025 state election), Labor 24.4% (down 22.1%), the Liberals 17.3% (down 7.1%), the Greens 7.5% (down 1.3%), Legalise Cannabis 3.7% (down 2.1%), Animal Justice 1.8% (down 0.8%) and Australian Christians 1.7% (down 1.1%).

A surprisingly weak flow of preferences to One Nation has restricted their winning margin after preferences to 57.0–43.0 against Labor. But it is still a thumping victory, compared with Labor’s 61.5–38.5 win over the Liberals in 2025. Although the Liberals had more than double the Greens’ vote, preferences favoured Labor by 50.8–49.2 over One Nation.

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