New Zealanders suffering through mortgage pain are expected to be spared another lift in the official cash rate at the central bank's next review.
However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may hike again later in the year beyond its current 5.5 per cent as inflation remains stubbornly high.
All major banks expect a hold on Wednesday, keeping the OCR at its highest rate since November 2008.
"We expect no change in policy and no change in tone. The cash rate will almost certainly be left at 5.5 per cent," Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said.
Headline inflation is at 6.0 per cent, as measured by the consumers price index (CPI) published by Stats NZ in July, down from 6.7 per cent in March.
New CPI data will land on October 17.
However, ANZ's chief economist Sharon Zollner expects the RBNZ to rediscover its hawkishness following a string of good economic news.
"We continue to expect a hike at the November meeting and risks are tilting towards even more being required in 2024," she said.
"We were crossing our fingers that 5.5 per cent would be enough to solve New Zealand's inflationary problems, but at this point, the data is suggesting that that will not be the case."
The Kiwi economy grew at 0.9 per cent in the June quarter - well above market expectations of 0.5 per cent - and welcomed after a contraction in Q4 2022 and flat growth in Q1 2023.
Household consumption was also up markedly, business activity jumped in August, the ANZ's "Truckometer" also saw growth, as did food prices (up 0.4 per cent in a month) and rents (up one per cent in a month).
"It's hard for the RBNZ to ignore the big miss on household consumption, which grew 0.4 per cent q/q, well above its forecast for a fall of -1.8 per cent," she said.
"It's also true that the full impact of the RBNZ's previous tightening on household finances is only about 75 per cent of the way through. So there's uncertainty, for sure."
