Nvidia's Blackwell GPUs for AI and HPC faced a slight delay due to a yield-killing issue with packaging that required a redesign, but it looks like this did not impact demand for these processors. According to the company's management questioned by Morgan Stanley analysts (via Barron's), the supply of Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for the next 12 months has been sold out, which mimics a situation with Hopper GPUs supply several quarters ago. As a result, Nvidia is expected to gain market share next year (via Seeking Alpha).
Morgan Stanley analysts shared insights from recent meetings with Nvidia's leadership, including CEO Jensen Huang. During these meetings, it was revealed that orders for the Blackwell GPUs are already sold out for the next 12 months. This means new customers placing orders today must wait until late next year to receive their orders.
Nvidia's traditional customers (AWS, CoreWeave, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle, to name some) have bought every Blackwell GPU that Nvidia and its partner TSMC will be able to produce in the coming quarters.
Such an overwhelming demand may indicate that Nvidia might gain market share next year despite intensified competition from AMD, Intel, cloud service providers (with proprietary offerings), and various smaller companies.
"Our view continues to be that Nvidia is likely to actually gain share of AI processors in 2025, as the biggest users of custom silicon are seeing very steep ramps with Nvidia solutions next year," Joseph Moore, an analyst with Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients. "Everything that we heard this week reinforced that."
Now that packaging issues of Nvidia's B100 and B200 GPUs have been resolved, Nvidia can produce as many Blackwell GPUs as TSMC can. Both B100 and B200 use TSMC's CoWoS-L packaging, and whether the world's largest chip contract maker has enough CoWoS-L capacity remains to be seen.
Also, as demand for AI GPUs is skyrocketing, it remains to be seen whether memory makers can supply enough HBM3E memory for leading-edge GPUs like Blackwell. In particular, Nvidia has yet to qualify Samsung's HBM3E memory for its Blackwell GPUs, another factor influencing supply.
