The controversy about whether Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling belong in the Hall of Fame has changed venues.
Their 10 years on the Baseball Writers’ Association of America ballot have passed, so they’re up for consideration in December by the Contemporary Era Committee.
The BBWAA ballot, which was announced Monday, enables voters to select up to 10 names from a 28-player list that includes leading returning vote-getter Scott Rolen, top newcomer Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez, whose support has been limited by his admission that he used performance-enhancing drugs.
BBWAA selections will be announced Jan. 24.
For a by-the-numbers look, the Jaffe WAR Score System (JAWS) balances peak and career value by averaging career WAR with best seven-year WAR as calculated at Baseball-Reference.com.
By JAWS, Rodriguez, Rolen, Manny Ramirez and Todd Helton exceed the Hall of Fame average for their positions.
Rodriguez: Without the PED connection, A-Rod would be a shoo-in. But he drew only 34.3% of the votes last year (75% is needed for election). A career .295 hitter, Rodriguez ranks fifth all-time with 696 home runs, fourth with 2,086 RBI, sixth with 2,021 runs scored and 12th among position players with a 117.6 bWAR.
Rodriguez’s JAWS of 90.9 easily outdistances the 55.4 Hall average at shortstop, his most-played position, or the 55.7 Hall average at third base, where A-Rod spent his Yankees years.
Rolen: In his sixth season on the ballot, third baseman Rolen steadily has gained support. He received 63.2% of the vote last year after 52.9% and 35.3% the two previous years. With a 70.1 bWAR, Rolen has a 56.9 JAWS that’s 1.2 above the average for Hall third basemen.
Rolen was a .281 hitter with 316 homers and 1,287 RBI. He also drew 899 walks to raise his on-base percentage to .364 and has a 21.2 defensive WAR, sixth all-time among third basemen.
Ramirez: Twice suspended for PED use, Ramirez has a tough road to the Hall. Last year, his sixth on the ballot, he received only 28.9% of the vote.
Judged strictly by production, he’s a contender, hitting .312/.411/.585 with 555 homers and 1,831 RBI. His 69.3 bWAR factors into a 54.6 JAWS, just above the 53.4 average for Hall left fielders.
Helton: A reputation as a Coors Field hitter has held down support for Helton, who drew 52% of the vote last year. He hit .316/.414/.539 with 369 homers overall and .287/.386/.469 and 142 homers on the road.
WAR adjusts for park effects, and with a 61.8 bWAR, Helton’s 54.2 JAWS is just above the Hall average at first base.
Hall average is a tough test, and others just below the JAWS line merit consideration. Beltran (57.3 JAWS) and Andruw Jones (54.6) are close to the 58.1 average in center. Jones has the added plus of a 24.4 defensive WAR that’s the all-time high among center fielders.
Other than A-Rod, no one has numbers that shout Hall of Fame inner circle. But there’s no shortage of worthy candidates.
