NOAA now puts the chances of a very strong El Niño this year at 81 per cent, warning it could become one of the most powerful climate events since records began in 1950, after earlier models led by the World Meteorological Organisation put the odds at just 10 per cent.
The sharp turnaround, revealed in a 9 July update from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, has prompted fresh scrutiny of how fast a rapidly warming strip of the Pacific can reshape global weather patterns.
