Two weeks remaining. Games that will define the season are ahead.
Below, we look at 15 games, including many that feature teams trying to clinch playoff berths or move up within their conference’s playoff picture.
So what’s going to determine how those games go? Let’s examine. Here’s a defining matchup for every game:
Detroit Lions (11–4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (10–5)
Key matchup: Detroit’s running backs vs. Cowboys’ front
The Cowboys have been solid defensively throughout the year but they’re average against the run, ranking tied for 15th at 4.2 yards per carry against.
Against the Lions, Dallas better buckle up. Detroit has both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who help the Lions to rank first in football with 935 rushing yards after contact.
New England Patriots (4–11) vs. Buffalo Bills (9–6)
Key matchup: Bills’ third-down offense vs. Patriots’ defense
Buffalo has been surging behind an offensive barrage, finally resulting in a three-game winning streak. One of the biggest reasons for the success is a league-high 49.2% third-down rate.
Against the Patriots, the Bills should face a tough test. New England is eighth defensively in the metric at 36.7%.
Atlanta Falcons (7–8) vs. Chicago Bears (6–9)
Key matchup: Atlanta’s red-zone defense vs. Bears’ attack
Mike Dinovo/USA TODAY Sports
The Bears haven’t generated consistent offense this year, but the unit is solid once inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Chicago ranks 12th at 57.1% in the red zone.
However, the Falcons’ defense is great in that area, ranking tops at 38.1%.
Las Vegas Raiders (7–8) vs. Indianapolis Colts (8–7)
Key matchup: Aidan O’Connell vs. Colts’ pressure
The Raiders have struggled offensively, but they don’t give up much pressure. In fact, Las Vegas’ offense is second-best in allowing pressure on only 15.2% of dropbacks.
Meanwhile, the Colts blitz the least of any team by percentage at 15.3, but rank fifth with 47 sacks.
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Los Angeles Rams (8–7) vs. New York Giants (5–10)
Key matchup: Giants’ offensive line vs. Aaron Donald
New York has been trying to find a quality front five all year, and through 15 games it hasn’t developed. The Giants allow sacks on 14.8% of passing plays, easily the worst mark in football.
With a relatively stationary quarterback under center in Tyrod Taylor, this could spell negative plays and turnovers against Aaron Donald and Co.
Arizona Cardinals (3–12) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (11–4)
Key matchup: Cardinals’ red-zone offense vs. Eagles’ defense
If there’s a way for the Cardinals to travel cross-country and pull off a stunning upset, it starts with cashing in once across the 20-yard line.
Arizona is sixth at 62.9% in the red zone, while the Eagles have been a mess defending their goal line, allowing touchdowns on 68.1% of red-zone trips to rank 29th.
New Orleans Saints (7–8) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8–7)
Key matchup: Derek Carr vs. Buccaneers’ pass defense
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With their season on the line, Carr will need to make some big plays against the Buccaneers’ secondary.
The good news for Carr? Other teams have routinely done so, with Tampa Bay allowing a league-high 264.1 passing yards per game.
San Francisco 49ers (11–4) vs. Washington Commanders (4–11)
Key matchup: Brock Purdy vs. Commanders’ pass defense
The 49ers are coming off an atrocious performance against the Ravens, but should get right this week with a visit to the Commanders.
San Francisco’s passing attack is first in yards per attempt (9.5) while Washington’s defense is 29th (7.7) in the metric.
Carolina Panthers (2–13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8–7)
Key matchup: Playmakers on both sides vs. tacklers
The Panthers and Jaguars have obviously had much different seasons, but both have struggled mightily in tackling. Carolina is tied for the most missed tackles with 112, while Jacksonville is at 111.
In a game with two teams which don’t wrap up well, a few big plays from quick throws could spell the difference.
Miami Dolphins (11–4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (12–3)
Key matchup: Pass rushers vs. quarterbacks tough to sack
Jessica Rapfogel (Madubuike) and Jim Rassol (Tagovailoa)/USA TODAY Sports
The Ravens lead the NFL with 54, while the Dolphins are right behind them with 52.
In this game, both defenses will be uniquely challenged. Miami is trying to tackle the league’s most elusive, athletic quarterback in Lamar Jackson, while Baltimore is attempting to get to Tua Tagovailoa before he throws. Tagovailoa has the quickest release time in football at 2.1 seconds per dropback.
Tennessee Titans (5–10) vs. Houston Texans (8–7)
Key matchup: Derrick Henry vs. Texans’ run defense
Henry remains one of the league’s best backs, rushing for 972 yards this year to rank sixth in the NFL, albeit at 3.9 yards per carry.
However, Houston’s front seven is a big test. The Texans are allowing 3.3 YPC, sitting behind only the Patriots in the metric.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8–7) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8–7)
Key matchup: Pittsburgh’s third-down offense vs. Seahawks defense
The Steelers have struggled offensively all year, and third down is no exception. Pittsburgh is 25th on the sport’s ultimate down, converting 35.8% of the time.
This week could be a boon for the Steelers, as Seattle’s third-down defense is a hideous 31st at 46.8%.
Los Angeles Chargers (5–10) vs. Denver Broncos (7–8)
Key matchup: The fans will vs. the quarterback play
We could dig through the weeds here. We could talk about Easton Stick and Jarrett Stidham finding success against certain coverages.
Instead, let’s be honest. The Chargers are injury-ravaged with an interim coach, and the Broncos aren’t trying to win. If people actively tune into this one, they deserve a medal.
Cincinnati Bengals (8–7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (9–6)
Key matchup: Bengals’ pass defense vs. Patrick Mahomes
The Bengals have been a sieve in the passing game, allowing a league-worst 12.3 yards per completion.
Normally, that’s a nightmare against Mahomes and the Chiefs. Not so this year. Kansas City is tied for 25th in yards per completion at 10.3. Who wins out here on Sunday?
Green Bay Packers (7–8) vs. Minnesota Vikings (7–8)
Key matchup: Jordan Love vs. the Vikings’ blitz
Minnesota is consistently a pressure defense under coordinator Brian Flores. The Vikings blitz an NFL-high 49.1% of the time, forcing quick decisions.
Love has been excellent this year but struggled in his first meeting against Flores, throwing for 5.6 yards per attempt and an interception in defeat.
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