NFL Week 16 MVP Stock Watch: Brock Purdy Takes Control

You may not like it, but the market has spoken.

The 49ers are the league’s best team, and oftentimes, the best team produces the MVP. It appears 2023 will be no different.

However, instead of do-it-all running back Christian McCaffrey taking the award, it appears Brock Purdy could take home the hardware. And while there will be revolt in some corners with complaints of an incredible supporting cast and elite scheming, Purdy has the numbers.

Through 14 games, he ranks first in yards per attempt (9.9), QBR (76.0) and touchdown passes (29) while being second in passing yardage (3,795) and completion rate (69.8%). From a team perspective, the 49ers are riding a six-game winning streak, averaging 34.5 points per game.

While Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Tyreek Hill, McCaffrey and others are still in the conversation, the award is Purdy’s to lose.

Rising

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers

Through 14 games, Purdy ranks first in yards per attempt (9.9), QBR (76.0) and touchdown passes (29).

Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

Last week: Rising

For all the reasons above, Purdy is the favorite to win MVP in his second year. Once Mr. Irrelevant, Purdy has now become a key player on the league’s Super Bowl favorite, the first team to win its respective division.

Yes, the arguments against Purdy are legitimate. The 49ers are loaded with talent from McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle, to receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, to future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams.

But Purdy is succeeding in a way that his San Francisco predecessors never did under coach Kyle Shanahan, and he deserves ample credit for it.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

Last week: Holding steady

Jackson has the Ravens at an AFC-best 11–3, and he’s doing it in unique fashion. Although he ranks only 15th in passing yardage (3,105) with 17 touchdown passes, Jackson’s dual-threat ability gives him a real case.

Jackson leads Baltimore in rushing yardage and needs 259 yards to hit 1,000 for the third time in his career. While the Ravens have an excellent defense, Jackson has been the driving force offensively with no receiver eclipsing more than 650 yards through 15 weeks.

Josh Allen, QB, Bills

Last week: Not rated

Allen is a long shot, but the Bills are surging, and Allen’s numbers are going to catch the eye of a few voters.

Although Buffalo is only 8–6 with a real shot of missing the playoffs, Allen’s style of play is attracting attention. He ranks eighth in passing yards (3,541) and is tied for third with 26 touchdown passes. However, Allen also ranks second worst with 14 interceptions, and in four of his last five games, has completed less than 60% of his attempts.

Allen merits being on the stock watch, but he would need an incredible run over the next three weeks to become a favorite.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers

Last week: Not rated

How great has McCaffrey been this year? He leads the race for the rushing title (1,292 yards), with Buffalo’s James Cook second (968) and Raheem Mostert third (966).

The gap between McCaffrey and Cook is larger than the gap between Cook and Jaylen Warren (652), who ranks 29th.

McCaffrey also leads all running backs with 509 receiving yards. Overall, he’s directly ahead of the Bengals’ Tee Higgins, along with the Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bills’ Dalton Kincaid and Saints’ Michael Thomas, among others.

Holding steady

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Last week: Falling

Mahomes’s receivers are dropping the ball at a league-high rate, but the Chiefs’ quarterback is still putting up major numbers.

He ranks fourth in passing yards (3,703), QBR (66.2) and completion rate (67.4%) among quarterbacks with at least nine starts. He’s also tied for fifth in touchdown passes (25).

Still, it’s tough to see Mahomes winning his third MVP. The Chiefs are 9–5, Mahomes doesn’t have eye-popping stats and based on his receivers, he’ll be hard-pressed to put up incredible numbers the rest of the way. 

Falling

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys

Prescott was 21-of-34 for 134 yards and an interception against the Bills.

Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports

Last week: Rising

Prescott arguably had the inside track to MVP honors, and then Sunday happened.

The Cowboys were blasted by the Bills, while Prescott was running for his survival much of the afternoon. Dallas’s quarterback was 21-of-34 for 134 yards and an interception, averaging 3.9 yards per attempt. In a national, standalone spot against a Super Bowl contender, that’s a devastating performance.

If the Cowboys win out and Prescott is great over the next three weeks (including games against the Dolphins and Lions), he still has a chance.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins

Last week: Falling

Hill missed a large chunk of last Monday night’s game against the Titans after injuring his ankle, and then was inactive Sunday in the Dolphins’ tilt with the Jets.

While Hill still leads the NFL in receiving yardage with 1,542, the notion of reaching 2,000 yards seems farfetched. He would need to average 156 yards per game. It’s not impossible, but very challenging.