No longer will bettors have to sweat out no-run first innings or showdowns between Conference USA and the FCS. The NFL season is nearly upon us.
That brings a whole new world of wagers to the table. Sure, you can bet spreads or back underdogs to win outright, but the rising tide of fantasy obsession has placed a larger spotlight on player props than ever before. Last year, you probably cashed enough to buy a nice midsized sedan if you leaned hard on Cooper Kupp overs and Zach Wilson unders.
I didn’t quite get there last year, but I wasn’t Rhode Island Scumbag levels of bad, either. I did well enough with my prop bets to at least somewhat redeem a mediocre record against the spread. Last year’s recommendations wrapped up at 105-79 on the season, a .571 batting average that was, at the very least, mildly profitable.
Here’s who I like in Week 1.
- Trey Lance longest pass OVER 34.5 yards. The 49ers are loaded with run-after-catch menaces, which helps pad this stat. Even if they weren’t, Niners coach Kyle Shanahan will likely make a statement about his departure from Jimmy Garoppolo by letting his young QB air it out against a talent-deficient Bears defense. Lance completed passes of at least 45 yards in two of his three games with at least 10 attempts last year.
- Justin Fields OVER 0.5 interceptions. He had 10 in 12 games last season. The 49ers don’t have a great secondary, but they do have a great pass rush. Expect lots of pressure and the bad, pickable throws that come with them.
- Austin Ekeler OVER 57.5 rushing yards. He’s hit 60+ in his last three games against the Raiders. The one time he failed to get there he had only four carries … and gained 47 yards.
- Christian Kirk OVER 4.5 receptions and 52.5 receiving yards. Kirk had an obscene target share this preseason alongside Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars aren’t paying him $72 million over four years to be a complimentary piece. Washington’s pass defense ranked 28th in DVOA last fall.
And here are the bets I kind of like, just not enough to officially recommend in bold:
- Chris Olave OVER 40.5 receiving yards.
- Joe Mixon OVER 67.5 rushing yards. He’s had at least 62 in each of his last six games against the Steelers and 79+ in four of his last five.
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