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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Christian D'Andrea

NFL QB Tiers Week 6: Josh Allen reclaims his throne, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford stare up in envy

Josh Allen, as we all expected, is the most valuable quarterback in the NFL through five games. Geno Smith, as only the most demented — or brilliant? — football minds saw coming, is right on his heels.

Smith’s age-32 breakthrough continued last week in a 268-yard, three touchdown performance on only 25 pass attempts against the New Orleans Saints. This wasn’t a function of quick dump-offs and big runs after the catch — though Jimmy Garoppolo has parlayed that into a top 10 ranking (!). Smith threw four passes at least 25 yards downfield. All four were caught and three were touchdowns.

That keeps him on the upper tier for another week, even if his place at the top has been justifiably usurped by Allen and Patrick Mahomes. How’d everyone else shake out? Let’s turn to advanced stats to figure out who brings the most value behind center.

We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through four games in the 2022 NFL season. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.

Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 32 quarterbacks (minimum 80 plays) that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong (i.e. Baker Mayfield).

There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.

via RBSDM.com and the author

1
Four elite QBs, including two guys you expected

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.196 EPA+CPOE composite

2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.193

3. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.189

4. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.188

There’s no need to recap Allen and Mahomes, we already know they’re impossible. We talked up Smith above, but …

Tagovailoa’s still up here until he falls off the minimum snap threshold. Let’s hope he’s all the way back before he puts on a helmet again.

2
Very good (until they kinda aren't)

Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles .0127 EPA+CPOE composite

6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.122

7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.122

8. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.120

9. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.116

Hurts, Jackson and Herbert are all sneaky good MVP bets. Brissett and Garoppolo are not.

Brissett has thrown an interception in the final five minutes of all three of the Browns’ losses this season. Garoppolo’s a top 10 quarterback, but his average completion only travels 5.4 yards downfield, so take that with a pillar of salt.

3
Yes, we've been comparing these two for years, we get it

AP Photo/Jeff Bottari

10. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.101 EPA+CPOE composite

11. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.101

Carr is doing Derek Carr things, looking underappreciated and putting in the work while losing. Brady is throwing the ball a ton and using his influence to draw game-saving roughing the passer penalties on complete and utter [expletive deleted].

4
All sorts of guys you kinda trust

AP Photo/Stacy Bengs

12. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.089 EPA+CPOE composite

13. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.089

14. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.085

15. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.080

16. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.078

17. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.072

18. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.070

This week’s middle ground runs seven deep — though Mac Jones hasn’t been playing and Bailey Zappe’s 0.125 EPA+CPOE composite would slot him between Hurts and Jackson on the list if he’d played enough stats (lol). Lawrence crashed out of the top 10 with another multiple turnover day. Daniel Jones rose eight spots by beating the Packers in one of his most encouraging performances as a New York Giant.

5
Quarterbacks you don't trust, but could certainly do worse than

Michael Chow/USA TODAY Network

19. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.064 EPA+CPOE composite

20. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints, 0.055

21. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.051

22. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys, 0.049

23. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.046

Mariota has been roughly what we expected in 2022. While his numbers are fine, the experience of actually watching him suggests the Desmond Ridder era will be soon upon us. Murray has regressed mightily as a passer after starting 2022 without DeAndre Hopkins and, for a long stretch, Rondale Moore. Andy Dalton’s been roughly twice as efficient as Winston this season (0.111 composite vs. 0.055 in limited snaps).

6
Oh no

AP Photo/John McCoy

24. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.039 EPA+CPOE composite

25. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.033

26. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.024

Stafford’s been hung out to dry by a bad offensive line. Ryan isn’t making the throws that made him an MVP in Atlanta (six years ago, but still). Wilson is fighting a terrible case of doofus brain.

7
Yeah, about what we expected

AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth

27. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.017 EPA+CPOE composite

28. Joe Flacco, New York Jets, 0.012

29. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.006

30. Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.001

31. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, 0.000

Fields looked as good as he’s ever looked against the Vikings and still moved up only two spots. Trubisky will slide off these ranks soon and be replaced by Kenny Pickett, who clocks in with a 0.074 EPA+CPOE composite — good for a top 20 mark but zero wins. Flacco’s spot will be filled by Zach Wilson, who’s at a 0.055 — the exact same number as Jameis Winston.

8
BAKER MAYFIELD

Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network

32. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, -0.043 EPA+CPOE composite

This is almost enough to make PJ Walker seem like an upgrade. Walker’s composite in 2021? -0.011. Good luck, Steve Wilks!

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