The NFL’s preseason slate opens with two games Thursday night and extends throughout the weekend with five games Friday, eight games Saturday and one game Sunday. It’s been an awfully long time without meaningful football, so let’s dive into a 10-point preview on what we’re looking for. Though heavy on the quarterbacks, we’ll provide a handful of training camp upstarts to keep an eye on, as well as some specifics on how we’re going to evaluate some of the biggest offensive questions of the preseason.
Let’s get to it…
Trevor Lawrence’s re-debut
Trevor Lawrence’s fresh start: Looking back on it now, Lawrence’s preseason in 2021 was not just a collection of the nascent, Bambi-on-Ice movements of a new quarterback learning the NFL ropes. It was, more than likely, the flailings of a young professional trying to overcome a completely broken offense. Remember his first snap against the Browns? It seems a little messed up now that we know what was happening behind the scenes, right?
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I was looking back at Clemson’s success under OC Tony Elliott, now the head coach at Virginia, and Chad Morris, Elliott’s predecessor at Clemson. The Tigers, Lawrence’s alma mater, ran an awful lot of two-back formations (estimates as high as 40%). And while that may have been the thought process behind former Jaguars coach Urban Meyer drafting Travis Etienne to pair with James Robinson, Etienne’s injury made that an impossible dream to realize for Meyer. In fact, the Jaguars used 01-personnel last year (no eligible running backs, one tight end and four wide receivers) more than almost any team in football. They were almost exclusively an 11-personnel team, (one back, one tight end, three wide receivers) with a little bit of 12-personnel (one back, two tight ends) sprinkled in.
While we are obviously not going to see what the Jaguars’ offense will look like as a whole, will we see them experimenting with any two-back backfields (or situational tight end usage that has a tight end acting as a second back)? To me, this would represent a promise to Lawrence that they are going to peel the best of Clemson’s offense and tailor it to his game. New coach Doug Pederson did this with Alex Smith in Kansas City, and set off an RPO explosion in the NFL with Carson Wentz in Philadelphia.
Daniel Jones' future with the Giants
Back in 2014, I remember trekking to Canton to see the Giants debut a new offense for Eli Manning, run by current Panthers offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. Manning had been with previous coordinator Kevin Gilbride for almost seven years, and the nuances of his scheme had become familiar to the fan base. This was something new. Exciting. Of course, McAdoo didn’t reveal anything that week, nor did he throughout the preseason. With the exception of Chip Kelly, I can’t remember a coach wheeling out the finer points of an offense during the exhibition period. It took a fair amount of time in the ’14 regular season for us to digest the differences.
This is a long-winded way of saying I’m curious to watch Jones but am not prepared to draw any sweeping conclusions. This is true for both the reason I mentioned before, and the fact that new coach Brian Daboll’s strength, I always felt, was situationally attacking opponents. You can read more about that here. So we’ll be watching Jones on Thursday night against the Patriots not for a stat line, but to see how confident he is letting it rip after his back foot hits the turf on step three of his drop. Does he throw the ball away at sensible times? Does he feel comfortable stretching the field on third-and-long? While there has been no inference that Jones is in a quarterback competition, having him behave with a lack of confidence that may suggest he’ll soon find himself in one would be worth noting. That, we’ll be able to see.
The zone blocking Patriots
Here is one of the best reported tidbits of the preseason, from the great Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald. She phoned legendary Patriots offensive line coach Dante Scarneccia about the team’s nightmarish struggles to adopt a bootleg-heavy outside-zone running game reminiscent of the 49ers, Titans, Packers and others (New England has long been a gap-blocking front). Scarneccia’s take:
“Bill [Belichick]’s never been one to say, ‘We’re going to run this no matter how it looks,’ ” he said. “He won’t do that. I can remember him saying numerous times, ‘We’re going on to something else.’ But in the meantime, you can’t stick your toe in the water and say this is what it’s going to be. You’ve just got to make the leap, trust the techniques and trust the guys involved.”
Basically, Belichick could easily toss the zone scheme. He may just be experimenting. Also, Scarneccia said the Patriots have run the outside-zone play, but never tied the passing game to that play the way Kyle Shanahan does (because when you have Tom Brady, you just do whatever he wants). Mac Jones is more athletic. Alabama ran a great deal of play-action. Perhaps they’re just comfortable with the gap elements of their running game and are hoping to be situationally outside zone.
My take is that I’d be stunned to see Belichick transition completely toward a scheme that is being run by half the NFL. Belichick has mastered the inefficiencies of the football marketplace for more than 20 years now. Do we really think he’s trying to look more like a 49ers team that has coaches everywhere else in the league, all of whom have a fairly decent idea of how to combat the scheme? I’m not saying outside zone is dead (far from it). But I am saying that with most defenses equipping themselves to defend it, why would the Patriots play into their hands?
We can easily tell if the Patriots are tinkering with zone blocking in the preseason. They would almost certainly have to run it against the Giants with their rotating core of linemen if they expect to run it Week 1 of the regular season.
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Malik Willis' debut with the Titans
The Titans have been heaping praise on the rookie. While this progress has been couched with certain coaching platitudes about Willis being behind the eight ball in terms of his footwork (Willis was much later to the position than most, starting behind center late in his high school career after being featured most prominently as a wide receiver), the preseason often lends itself to showcasing players with solid athleticism. We could very well exit the preseason with an eye on Willis’s athletic ceiling, which could be enough to entice Titans fans who are wary of Ryan Tannehill’s on-field limitations.
When I checked in on Willis before the draft, one of the coolest tidbits I heard about him was that he would have, guaranteed, been offered a chance to play wide receiver or cornerback at any Power 5 school in the country. His talent is that real. For a coach as resourceful as Mike Vrabel, what does that allow you to accomplish right away?
On the other hand, the Titans may want to see specifically how well Willis gets the ball out on time. Either way, tracking the undesigned rushes from Willis will be a worthy endeavor during the Titans’ matchup with the Ravens on Friday. He’s going to look great doing it, but would the Titans prefer to set him up in situations where Willis has to operate with structure? The buzz in Nashville is Willis seems comfortable with the offense, but we’ll see just how comfortable against a lively defense that may send extra rushers late into the second half to see who can contribute as a situational pass rusher on the 53-man roster.
Baker Mayfield's debut with the Panthers
Mayfield closed out practice Tuesday with back-to-back scoring drives during a two-minute situational drill (according to The Charlotte Observer, head coach Matt Rhule was asked to start the drill over by a defensive player after Mayfield scored on them the first time). It sounds clear and obvious to anyone attending regular practices in Wofford that Mayfield will run away with the starting job. The questions are whether he’ll keep it, or whether he’ll use the preseason to further drive a wedge between himself and Sam Darnold.
Mayfield was always the superior player, and the Panthers would not have traded for him if he wasn’t a marked upgrade over Darnold in the first place. While smart money is on most of his skill players being miles away from the field this weekend against the Commanders, it’s worth watching how Mayfield is programming himself with the Panthers. What do his reads look like? How quickly does the running back factor into his progression? Will he minimize situations where he needs to press away from his receivers to gain the requisite visibility?
As an aside, one palpable aspect we’ll be able to track: Do people respond to him? I used to think this was a joke, à la the movie Draft Day. But it’s true. Coaches watch this stuff. If Mayfield throws a touchdown, who is celebrating with him? How does he approach Darnold on the sideline? Though attempts to smear Mayfield on his way out of Cleveland always felt transparent given their plans at the quarterback position, Mayfield’s personality may have always been an acquired taste. Where does the personal acclimation process go from here?
The Steelers quarterback situation
While we should be encouraged to tamper any outsized criticism of players during training camp (see: Ja’Marr Chase can’t catch), reports out of Pittsburgh have been concerning at best. TribLive.com reported that Kenny Pickett has been struggling to the point where the team may not feel comfortable putting him in live exhibitions. Remember, Pickett has the smallest passing hand of any quarterback in the NFL. Mitch Trubisky has a lower batting average on shots from the 2-yard line in practice than the collective Pittsburgh Pirates. Trubisky projects as the Week 1 starter, though Mike Tomlin’s endorsement doesn’t necessarily sound ringing here. Essentially, he’s falling back on a little bit of coaching legalese. Mitch has more experience, so right now he is going to start. The team’s decision to defer finding Ben Roethlisberger’s replacement looms large in these moments. While Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the NFL, last year the Steelers showed exactly how much a talented surrounding core can buoy a decaying situation at quarterback. It’s not much better than barely sneaking into the extended wild-card game that will be broadcast on Nickelodeon.
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Jets offensive line woes and impact on Zach Wilson
Mekhi Becton is done for the season, ending what should have been a rebound campaign for the promising former first-round pick. I don’t think Becton gets the credit he deserves for plunging headfirst into a drastic scheme change like he did; one that didn’t necessarily fit his body type. There’s most certainly an NFL team suited for his skill set once he’s healthy.
That said, offensive line play is especially important for Zach Wilson, who struggled under pressure at BYU. In a perfect world, Wilson gets ample time on boot-action throws, plus some additional milliseconds from an improvisational offensive line that can allow Jets receivers time to get open deep. This is a tough ask for Chuma Edoga, who, according to practice reports, had the initial task of spelling Becton in the lineup. Duane Brown is on their free agent short list, and this weekend’s performance could eventually expedite that process.
While it’s important not to make too much of one injury, anything tangentially connected to the progress of Wilson is serious business. The quarterback was brilliant in short spurts last year and concerning during longer stretches. If the Jets make progress toward diminishing the gap between those polar opposites, they will almost certainly have a sustainable franchise quarterback on their hands. But, so much goes into that process. Only two players—Jameis Winston and Jalen Hurts—took longer to throw the ball on average last year. Wilson, at a whopping three seconds per dropback, can’t get by with a replacement-level player anchoring the right side.
(Since I cannot, in good conscience, give the Jets two of the 10 spaces on this list, I will add as an aside that Sauce Gardner will play a quarter in Friday’s opener, per The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt. There has not been a more singularly hyped player in the preseason, and the Jets beat is one that knows good cornerback play when they see it. We were treated to peak Darrelle Revis for so long).
Does the Jimmy Garoppolo market open up?
From a 30,000 foot view, something has to give with the 49ers’ quarterback, despite what coach Kyle Shanahan is calling a dormant trade market. Of course, Shanahan is smart enough not to reveal anything publicly, and it’s ludicrous to think that given the dearth of talented quarterback play in the NFL, Garoppolo would remain a fourth-string quarterback. He is proficient in the most popular offense in the NFL, and has two deep playoff runs on his résumé. Coaches have convinced themselves of more success when paired with far less talented players than Garoppolo.
What expedites issues like this is often a team coming to full grips with how underwhelming or dire their own situation is. Garoppolo would have connections in Miami, and could fit into offenses being run in New England, Green Bay, Cleveland, Atlanta, Tennessee, Arizona and Denver, among others. We’re not actively cheering on an injury or a catastrophically bad performance, but we are acknowledging that it happens. Garoppolo is the last capable starter on the market, and for all the difficulties and awkwardness the 49ers have endured having to keep him stashed, they may end up reaping a reward for their patience.
As a side note, how will Trey Lance look? Last year in the preseason, he took our breath away. Despite what I found to be some promising moments, there seemed to be an overall lack of optimism from those in his circle. Lance was described to me more as a “great kid” than a “generational talent,” which he seems to have the tools to become. Garoppolo remained the starter when healthy throughout the season. All that said, if Lance still feels incapable of grasping the Shanahan system, does there arise some merit in keeping Garoppolo again?
How will announcers handle a problematic time for the NFL?
The NFL preseason contains very little meaningful action after halftime, which means ample amounts of on-air improvisation from announcers who may not be used to a reach beyond their local markets. As of the writing of this piece, Deshaun Watson could get snaps. Daniel Snyder is under investigation. The Buccaneers, Dolphins, Saints and Patriots were all embroiled in a massive tampering scandal allegedly piloted by Miami owner Stephen Ross. Brian Flores is making his coaching debut in Pittsburgh. As an announcer, do you simply pretend those things didn’t happen? Do you get deep into the fourth tight end competition? Do you break down the fourth slot cornerback battle, or do you get real for a moment and say, O.K., Watson took some snaps tonight. Here’s what’s going on.
I reached out to one nfl broadcaster who said, “I mostly try and pretend this stuff doesn't exist in August with notable exceptions: the Miami news and the Watson news. But no one wants speculation on why their team is the worst."
The unearthing of a mid-round/undrafted gem
This is what the preseason is for, no? At some point there will be a player who significantly impacts the NFL regular season and earns an opportunity from one of these games. Some options?
• Isaih Pacheco, running back, Chiefs (seventh-round pick out of Rutgers)
• Khalil Shakir, wide receiver, Bills (fifth-round pick out of Boise State). He may or may not play due to lingering soreness.
• Nicholas Petit-Frere, Titans (third-round pick out of Ohio State)
• Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen (according to the Seattle Times, both rookie cornerbacks will get serious looks as starters thanks to a rash of camp injuries. How fascinating to see John Scheider and Pete Carroll with a few mid-round pick cornerbacks and nothing to lose again)
•Isaiah Likely, tight end, Ravens (fourth-round pick, out of Coastal Carolina): Starter Mark Andrews is not playing in the opener, and fellow fourth-round pick Charlie Kolar is dealing with a hernia. The Ravens covet the tight end position. Likely could turn out to be a contributor.
• Montrell Washington, wide receiver, Broncos (fifth-round pick out of Samford)
• Rachaad White, running back, Buccaneers (fourth-round pick out of Arizona State)
• Yusuf Corker, safety, Giants (undrafted out of Kentucky)
• LaBryan Ray, defensive lineman, Patriots (undrafted out of Alabama)
