Our postseason prop bets got off to a good, not great, start thanks to the continued gift of Darius Slayton’s presence. We’re back on him in the official plays — in bold — but somehow also fading him in the unofficial leans. Hey, the playoffs are weird sometimes.
Trevor Lawrence OVER 249.5 passing yards. Kansas City has several nice pieces in its secondary, but there’s a reasonable chance Lawrence throws the ball 50 times if playing from behind in a playoff game — he hit 47 last week. The second-year QB had 259 yards and a pair of touchdowns when he faced the Chiefs in a 27-17 Week 10 defeat. Pair this with his longest completion OVER 33.5 yards.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 54.5 rushing yards. He’s hit this number in eight of his last nine games — including 82 yards on 16 carries in his first matchup against the Jaguars and their 11th-ranked rushing defense.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 8.5 receiving yards. He’s had at least 11 in six of his last seven games — the only exception being the Week 18 game against the Raiders in which he only played 36 percent of the offensive snaps in a blowout.
Darius Slayton longest reception OVER 20.5 yards. There have been 14 games this season in which Slayton has played at least 50 percent of the Giants’ offensive snaps. He’s hit this over in 10 of them.
Josh Allen UNDER 44.5 rushing yards. The Bengals gave up the third-fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks in 2022. Allen has gone under this total in each of his last three games.
Dak Prescott OVER 13.5 rushing yards. Prescott has emphasized running more in recent weeks — he’s had at least five carries in five of his last six games. He’s run for at least 16 yards in each of them. While the Niners are stingy against QBs on the ground, they also haven’t faced many dual-threat runners in proper conditions. Prescott will likely be flushed from the pocket often, creating space to hit this over despite a decline in his scrambling efficiency this fall (5.0 yards per scramble, down from 6.4 last year).
Last week: 4-3 (.571)
Regular season record: 83-40 (.675)
Postseason record: 4-3 (.571)
Season to date: 87-43 (.669)
My official leans (not plays) for the divisional round
Here are the bets I like, then talked myself out of for various reasons. They haven’t been as solid as they were early in the season when they were cashing at a ridiculous rate, but they’re still useful if you’re feeling it.
- Darius Slayton OVER 45.5 receiving yards. Slayton should have an impact for Daniel Jones downfield, but perhaps not a consistent one; he’ll be a major target for the league’s top-ranked passing defense.
- Dallas Goedert OVER 47.5 receiving yards. The Giants are just OK against tight ends and Goedert has been one of the most consistent players at his position this season when healthy.
- Hayden Hurst UNDER 32.5 receiving yards. The Bills allowed the fourth-fewest yards to tight ends in the NFL. But the last time these teams met, Hurst had two targets for two catches and 25 yards in one-plus drive before Damar Hamlin’s collapse led the game to be canceled. He may be used as a viable third or fourth option again in the rematch.
- Kadarius Toney UNDER 32.5 receiving yards. History suggests he’ll play about one-third of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps and mostly be targeted near the line of scrimmage (his average depth of target is 4.8 yards downfield).
Last week: 3-1 (.750)
Regular season record: 42-17 (.712)
Postseason record: 3-1 (.750)
Season to date: 90-44 (.672)
