Week 1 of the NFL season is where months of offseason and preseason theories are put to the test. While this provides the evidence that will shape a season, it also creates a wondrous vacuum for overreaction.
Is Brian Daboll, fresh off a stunning upset of the Tennessee Titans in Nashville, the rising star capable of shaking off the curse of Bill Belichick’s coaching tree? Is Belichick, who oversaw a low-energy, seven-point outing in the New England Patriots’ debut, en route to his worst season in two decades? Is Justin Jefferson about to have a 3,000 yard receiving season?
There’s plenty of big storylines demanding our attention after one weekend of pro football. Here are the five biggest stories — and whether they deserve a second look or if they’re merely outliers stemming from Week 1 discombobulation.
1
Aaron Rodgers is staring into the void of his own mortality
For months NFL fans wondered whether Aaron Rodgers would be able to make do after Davante Adams left an already depleted receiving corps. Then the 2022 season began and this was his first pass:
Christian Watson is, in fact, the perfect replacement for Marquez Valdes-Scantling pic.twitter.com/7MUgB10VIu
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 11, 2022
No way. My biggest regret last weekend was not being in a Wisconsin townie bar to watch that live. I guarantee those hives of High Life and Korbel brandy weren’t nearly as restrained as Rodgers:
The Packers fell behind 17-0 at halftime and, despite brief glimpses of life, sputtered to a 23-7 loss. Rodgers failed to throw a touchdown pass. His leading receiver was AJ Dillon, a running back who wound up split wide some snaps in an effort to assuage the team’s abject lack of wideouts. Rookie Romeo Doubs, with four catches for 37 yards, was the team’s most successful WR.
While Allen Lazard’s absence due to injury played a role, there was no doubt Rodgers’ engine had been governed by a group of targets who either couldn’t get open or couldn’t catch the ball. The defense that was supposed to carry him through lean times failed as well, letting Justin Jefferson run free en route to nine catches, 184 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
If this is a sign of things to come, it won’t get better anytime soon. Green Bay is currently slated to have negative cap space for 2023, which means it won’t be able to bulk up that WR corps in free agency. The Packers could draft a pass catcher early in the first round, but the franchise hasn’t done that in two decades.
This brings up the real possibility of an unhappy Aaron Rodgers, who is a man easily led to disgruntled-ness to begin with. Rodgers didn’t blow up after the wheels fell off in Week 1. Keeping it together through a whole season of this? That’s a different story altogether.
Buy or sell: Sell, at least for one more week.
The Packers looking stupid in Minnesota is nothing new. This was the team’s fifth loss there in its last seven games. Rodgers had a passer rating under 75.0 in four of those matchups, though in fairness one was the game Anthony Barr smashed his collarbone into dust. This may not be R-E-L-A-X Rodgers in 2022, but there’s plenty of time for a talented defense to get back on track.
2
The Buffalo Bills are the death star
The Bills turned the ball over three times in the first half against the reigning NFL champion Los Angeles Rams. Buffalo went on to win by 21.
Josh Allen threw two interceptions — one of which wasn’t his fault — and still managed to record a passer rating of 112.0. This was nearly double Matthew Stafford’s mark for the night. Also, he ran right the hell through a bunch of Rams defenders:
Josh Allen plays football like one of his parents was a Ford F150 pic.twitter.com/2KNIdQoP2U
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 9, 2022
Stefon Diggs was matched up against Jalen Ramsey for much of the game and caught eight of nine targets for 122 yards and a score. That included this extremely rude back-shoulder catch:
oh my god Jalen Ramsey's gonna be sick pic.twitter.com/c3Th44Btw4
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 9, 2022
Buffalo’s defense goaded Stafford into three interceptions, sacked him seven times and hit him 15 (FIFTEEN!) more. Von Miller had two sacks and three tackles for loss. A passing defense without All-Pro Tre’Davious White allowed fewer than six yards per pass attempt.
This is all to say the Bills are very good and should have no problem getting to Super Bowl 57.
Buy or sell: Buy, with the caveat that Stafford wasn’t quite himself Thursday night.
The Bills’ passing defense is the one potential flaw in an otherwise absurd armada of weapons and that group embarrassed LA. But Stafford’s arm strength wasn’t quite there after an offseason of speculation about a lingering elbow injury. Will that group be able to stand up to the dynamic throws of Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert in the postseason? Probably! But it’s worth keeping an eye on.
3
The Steelers could not afford to lose T.J. Watt
Pittsburgh’s quarterback issues had a very clear remedy; a star-studded defense built around the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Unfortunately for the Steelers, T.J. Watt left Week 1’s win over the Bengals with what’s reported to be a torn pectoral muscle that will keep him out for at least six weeks.
That’s a difference-making loss over a stretch of vitally winnable games before the team’s schedule gets brutal. Pittsburgh faces the Patriots, Browns and Jets over the next three weeks. Then it gets the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles before a Week 8 bye.
Getting to 4-0 could be paramount to Mike Tomlin’s hopes for a third-straight playoff appearance. Losing the guy who had a sack, three tackles for loss and two passes swatted down in three-plus quarters against a division rival dampers those expectations. A sudden spiral without Watt could doom Pittsburgh before the season’s halfway point and plant the franchise firmly into “maybe next year” mode.
Buy or sell: Sell.
Watt is the most important part of that defense, but there are stars elsewhere capable of lifting this team to 4-0 and even notching a couple wins once the schedule dials up the intensity. Alex Highsmith had three sacks and four quarterback hits last week. While he’ll see additional blocking focus as a result of Watt’s absence, he’s capable of keeping that momentum rolling — especially against the shaky offensive lines the Steelers face through September.
It’s fair to worry about Pittsburgh’s offense with Mitchell Trubisky manning the wheel, but Mitch was useful in his black-and-yellow debut. He was only sacked once and didn’t turn the ball over, and while he averaged only 5.1 yards per pass he did enough to ensure all but one of Cincinnati’s scoring drives covered at least 50 yards.
The Steelers can win like that. It won’t be pretty, but it will be unapologetically Pittsburgh.
4
The 49ers are in real, real trouble
Trey Lance’s first game as San Francisco’s unquestioned starting quarterback was ugly start to finish. The rain-soaked turf at Soldier Field was a low-grade swamp. The 49ers averaged just 4.9 yards per play, turned the ball over twice and coughed up a 10-0 lead despite out-gaining the Bears 331-204.
In the process, Lance was the least efficient quarterback this side of Dak Prescott:
Prescott and the Cowboys are a bad hype category unto themselves (yes, 1000 percent but that they’re in so, so much trouble) but the 49ers have their own reason for concern. San Francisco invested heavily in Lance, dealing three first round picks away for the chance to draft him and demoting Jimmy Garoppolo, who’d taken the team to a Super Bowl and two NFC title games in the past three seasons, to understudy.
But Lance completed less than half his passes and failed to find the end zone. He threw 11 passes after the Niners fell behind in the second half and gained 32 yards. The dual-threat running that was supposed to be his trump card over Garoppolo in Kyle Shanahan’s offense led to seven carries for 11 yards over his game-sealing final three series.
Buy or sell: Sell, but keep an eye on that offense.
Lance was crushed by a handful out outside influences that contributed to his awful Week 1. He played in a monsoon. George Kittle missed the entire game. Eli Mitchell ran for 6.8 yards per carry, got hurt, and was replaced by Jeff Wilson who ran for 2.4.
Let’s give him a stocked offense on a sunny day before declaring him a lost cause in San Francisco.
5
The Patriots are in real, real trouble
The Patriots’ loss in Miami felt much more concerning than the Niners, even if New England was the underdog in Week 1.
Mac Jones played average football. He needs to be great to push a depleted roster to the playoffs — and his opportunity for growth is hindered not only by the questionable Matt Patricia/Joe Judge duo as kinda/sorta offensive coordinator, but also the back injury that required x-rays Sunday evening. Only three Patriot skill players finished with a positive expected points added (EPA) per the league’s Next Gen Stats:
A bigger concern is a defense that allowed Tyreek Hill to light it up downfield and close to the line of scrimmage while contributing to one of the most efficient days of Tua Tagovailoa’s career (270 yards, one touchdown, zero turnovers, 104.4 passer rating). If the Dolphins can do that, what will the Bills, Bengals and Raiders do?
Buy or sell: Buy.
This is not a compelling Patriots team, and while the return of Kendrick Bourne to a more prominent role should help — he missed most of game one due to disciplinary reasons — it’s tough to get too excited. New England stood pat in free agency this offseason thanks to a lack of cap space. Bill Belichick drafted his first two prospects roughly one round ahead of where they expected to be picked and might not get any meaningful returns from them until 2023.
While the rest of the AFC bulked up, the Pats arguably got worse. That led to an uninspiring opening week and a lackluster team to watch on the field. There’s no easy fix for that, even for a Hall of Fame head coach like Belichick.
