AN in-depth analysis of Westminster voting intention has predicted which party will win every seat in Scotland at the next General Election.
Analysts at Stonehaven political consultancy used a statistical technique called multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) to forecast how every constituency would vote.
They predicted a Labour landslide across the UK, with the party returning some 402 MPs – a majority of 154.
The Tories were predicted to win just 151 seats, an even worse result than the crushing defeat Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour suffered in 2019 when it returned 202 MPs.
The poll analysis also has bad news for the SNP, who are predicted to return “only 20 MPs to Westminster, its worst General Election result since 2010”.
Stonehaven reported: “Eight years ago this recovery [for Scottish Labour] was unimaginable – the SNP had swept nearly all of Scotland’s Westminster seats and Labour returned one Scottish MP.
“Yet, both the model and the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election swing to Labour confirm the worsening fate of the SNP.”
Of the 57 constituencies in Scotland under the newly drawn boundaries, Scottish Labour were predicted to win 22 seats. The Tories were also expected to put in a strong performance, returning 11 Scots MPs.
The LibDems were predicted to win the remaining four seats north of the Border.
According to the Stonehaven analysis, this is how every one of Scotland’s constituencies are predicted to vote:
- Aberdeen North – SNP
- Aberdeen South – SNP
- Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – Conservatives
- Airdrie and Shotts – Labour
- Alloa and Grangemouth – SNP
- Angus and Perthshire Glens – SNP
- Arbroath and Broughty Ferry – SNP
- Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber – Conservatives
- Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – Conservatives
- Bathgate and Linlithgow – SNP
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – Conservatives
- Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross – SNP
- Central Ayrshire – Conservatives
- Coatbridge and Bellshill – Labour
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy – Labour
- Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch – Labour
- Dumfries and Galloway – Conservatives
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – Conservatives
- Dundee Central – SNP
- Dunfermline and Dollar – Labour
- East Kilbride and Strathaven – Labour
- East Renfrewshire – Conservatives
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh – SNP
- Edinburgh North and Leith – SNP
- Edinburgh South – Labour
- Edinburgh South West – SNP
- Edinburgh West – LibDems
- Falkirk – SNP
- Glasgow East – SNP
- Glasgow North – SNP
- Glasgow North East – Labour
- Glasgow South – Labour
- Glasgow South West – Labour
- Glasgow West – Labour
- Glenrothes and Mid Fife – Labour
- Gordon and Buchan – Conservatives
- Hamilton and Clyde Valley – Labour
- Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West – Labour
- Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire – SNP
- Kilmarnock and Loudoun – SNP
- Livingston – SNP
- Lothian East – Labour
- Mid Dunbartonshire – LibDems
- Midlothian – Labour
- Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey – Conservatives
- Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke – Labour
- Na h-Eileanan an Iar – Labour
- North Ayrshire and Arran – SNP
- North East Fife – LibDems
- Orkney and Shetland – LibDems
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North – Labour
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South – Labour
- Perth and Kinross-shire – SNP
- Rutherglen – Labour
- Stirling and Strathallan – SNP
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – Conservatives
- West Dunbartonshire – Labour
Across the UK, the analysis predicted that Labour would win 40% of the vote while the Tories win 26%. It said that the Conservatives could deny Labour a majority if they can win 32% of the vote.
Stonehaven reported: “A six-percentage point increase in national share of the vote to the Conservatives – a small but significant shift – would be sufficient to deny Labour a majority, returning a hung parliament, in an ‘electoral shock’ reminiscent of the 2017 General Election when Theresa May as the Conservative contender had seemed unassailable.
“This critical 6% of voters are reluctant Tory defectors – people who voted Conservative in 2019 but are now largely abstaining or voting for other parties. Rishi Sunak (below) will have to win over this group in order to improve the Conservatives chances come the next election, and can do so without needing to make large gains into Labour’s vote share.”
Senior insights adviser Mark McInnes said: “The Conservatives must now clearly focus on those voters who can get them back above 30% and into a viable position before a General Election. Getting these formally core Conservative voters back will be the difference between a catastrophic defeat and a heavy election loss.”
Stonehaven said its model is “deeply informed by an extensive dataset amassed from roughly 100,000 respondents over the last 18 months”.
It goes on: “Our most recent survey update adds 7000 new respondents across September and October; however, the true strength of our findings lies in the richness of our cumulative dataset spanning two years, combined with census and other constituency level data.”
