New Hampshire voters are gearing up for their first primary vote on the Republican presidential nomination calendar, which is set to take place on Tuesday. This primary holds significance as it is one of the few open primaries across the country, where both Republicans and Democrats can cast their ballots in their own party's elections. However, what makes this primary unique is that undeclared voters have the option to participate in either party's primary. Additionally, for Democrats, this year is exceptional. Traditionally, New Hampshire is mandated by state law to hold the first primary in the nation. However, President Biden and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) aimed to give South Carolina the first position this year. Consequently, the DNC has decided not to award any delegates in New Hampshire, and President Biden will not feature on the ballot there. Instead, Democrats are promoting a write-in campaign for Biden.
On the Republican side, contestants are vying for 22 delegates based on the primary's results. Recent polls indicate a significant lead for former President Donald Trump, who is favored by 41% of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire. Nikki Haley follows with 49%, while Ron DeSantis trails behind with 4%. Notably, New Hampshire has a substantial number of undeclared voters, with nearly 399,000 registered as independents. It is anticipated that more independents may participate in the Republican primary due to the heightened level of competition in that race.
Regarding the potential outcomes, the polls show a narrowing margin between Haley and Trump in the Republican primary. However, the accuracy of these poll numbers may change as the primary draws closer, and it becomes evident how many independents will turn out to vote and whether they can sway the results significantly.
Another candidate, Ron DeSantis, has taken an unconventional approach in his campaign. He unexpectedly canceled his scheduled appearances on Sunday morning shows and modified his plans in New Hampshire. Initially planning to focus on South Carolina, he has now added an event in New Hampshire today. This decision has raised questions and added to the perception of disarray in DeSantis' campaign.
Looking at second-choice preferences among likely New Hampshire voters, the polls suggest that Nikki Haley is gaining momentum while Ron DeSantis appears to be losing ground. However, it is crucial to note that the current analysis omits the frontrunner in Iowa, Donald Trump, who has a strong lead. Trump has already secured the endorsement of Vivek Ramaswamy and has successfully eliminated one of his major competitors in Iowa.
As primary night approaches, all eyes will be on the New Hampshire primary to see if Trump's considerable lead holds up, if Haley's momentum continues to surge, and how the participation of undeclared voters may influence the outcome. The primary results will likely have significant implications for the trajectory of the Republican presidential nomination race.
