It can be tricky to evaluate rookies as they roll through their first year in the league.
Small sample sizes can breed results that aren’t exactly in line with a player’s performance, and a few hot games may present a budding star when a player’s profile otherwise suggests a rotation player. Fail to take the entire body of work into account, and you may enter Year 2 with an obscured vision of a player’s future.
We’re beginning to get a more clear picture of the 2021 class’s future with fewer than two months left in the regular season. Evan Mobley looks like Cleveland’s star of the future, while Cade Cunningham still looks the part of a leading man. Dig a little further, and there are numerous nonlottery players who should hang around the league across the next decade. So how can we measure the impact of various rookies across the league? Let’s dive into one key stat for each of the league’s top rookies as the playoff push begins.
1. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
Mobley isn’t just an impressive defender by rookie standards. He’s a downright issue for opposing offenses, flashing the upside of a multi-time Defensive Player of the Year each week as he patrols the paint for Cleveland. Only five centers (and no rookies) have more blocks. Teams are shooting just 55.4% at the rim against Mobley, a worse mark than those who challenge Rudy Gobert, Robert Williams and Myles Turner. Attack Mobley’s mammoth wingspan at your peril.
It would be one thing if Mobley were simply an impact rim defender. Yet that notion obscures his true value. Perhaps his most impressive defensive skill is his ability to shuffle with guards and wings on the perimeter, a talent illustrated by his paltry 0.68 points per possession allowed on isolation attempts. Mobley’s instincts near the three-point line belie that of a typical big. He doesn’t lunge at ball-handlers, nor does he leave his feet at a simple head-fake. Mobley is smooth in his strides. He shuffles his feet like a wing. He uses his length to impact drivers even when he is beat to the rim, with a chase-down block always in play.
Gobert is the best defensive center of his generation, though even the Stifle Tower can get played off the floor in the wrong series. The same concerns don’t necessarily apply to Mobley. His blend of size, foot speed and smarts could create a truly generational defender over the next decade.
2. Scottie Barnes, Raptors
Barnes certainly fits in with a class of precocious youngsters, entering the NBA as an absolute physical force at just 20 years old. Barnes looks at times as though he is in a different weight class than his fellow rookies, using his 230-pound frame to bulldoze his way to the rim with ease. He plays with an intensity and attention to detail befitting Nick Nurse’s squad in Toronto, and he wreaks havoc when Nurse goes to the rarely used full-court press. The poor Rockets never saw it coming in early February.
Barnes’s physical tools and defensive acumen provide the floor for a plus player, one who should carve out a lengthy career. Whether Barnes can emerge as a semi-consistent All-Star is dependent upon his ability to punish defenses away from the rim. We’ve seen encouraging signs of late. He’s increasingly comfortable as an off-the-dribble shooter, and his step-back is a legitimate weapon (just ask the Nets). His shortcoming lies in his ability as a spot-up shooter. Barnes is shooting just 32.1% on all spot-up shots this season, the fifth-worst mark of the 131 players with at least 100 attempts. Barnes is a little stiff when left open, and you can sometimes seem to see the gears turning in his head as to whether he should shoot, pass or drive. This isn’t some sort of death knell, of course. Toronto’s player-development machine should iron out any hitch in his stroke, and his ability to diagnose scrambling defenses should naturally improve with age. Barnes will be Toronto’s next All-Star sooner than later if he can become even a league-average shooter off the catch.
3. Franz Wagner, Magic
I don’t blame anyone for bypassing the hapless Magic most nights on League Pass, though even a brief pop-in can be enough to catch a glimpse of Wagner’s array of talents. The rookie forward is a bit of a jack-of-all-trades for a funky Orlando roster, serving as a dynamic cutter, spot-up threat and even lead initiator in spurts. Wagner sports impressive 47/37/85 shooting splits. He’s tallied 20-plus points 15 times, the most of any rookie. Orlando found a gem in the Michigan product with the No. 8 pick.
Wagner’s prowess in transition is perhaps the most impressive element of his arsenal. He leads all rookies with 187 transition points, and his 54.5% mark from the field in transition is better than fellow wings of Barnes, RJ Barrett and Jaylen Brown. And Wagner is no out-of-control freight train, either. He moves down the floor like a German Blake Griffin at times, keeping his balance despite his galloping frame. Most young bigs and wings would bowl over a defender here. Wagner makes the pass to the corner with ease.
It’s still hard to discern Orlando’s direction at the moment, with a crowded crop of intriguing-yet-unspectacular players in the early part of their career. Wagner is the most promising piece in this group. Orlando should explore the outer ranges of his talents whenever possible, even as it integrates Jalen Suggs and Markelle Fultz.
4. Cade Cunningham, Pistons
Petre Thomas/USA TODAY Sports
Cunningham is playing some of his best basketball of the season of late as the Pistons enter Friday with three wins in their last five games. Cunningham is averaging 20.2 points, seven rebounds and 5.2 assists per game in that span, thriving with more room to operate as Detroit’s lineup returns to full strength. The turnover numbers and three-point are still a work in progress, though such is life for a rookie point guard. What’s most encouraging is Cunningham’s feel for the game, and his ability to shift defenses into open shots for his teammates.
Cunningham is averaging 9.9 potential assists per game, a better mark than Lonzo Ball and Donovan Mitchell. He sits second among rookies (behind Josh Giddey) in that category, and he leads all rookies in secondary (or hockey) assists. Some poor teammate shooting has depressed what could be impressive assist totals, creating a sort of déjà vu situation to his lone year at Oklahoma State.
The transition to the NBA game hasn’t been completely smooth for Cunningham thus far, and our expectations may have been a little obscured by Luka Dončić’s historic rookie year in 2018–19. But make no mistake: Cunningham has the ability and mental acumen to be a lead playmaker, one who still sports the ceiling of an All-NBA talent. His calm and attentive nature in the halfcourt is notable for a player his age. We could see a leap in the coming years as the talent grows around him in the Motor City.
5. Herb Jones, Pelicans
** Note: this spot is traditionally reserved for Josh Giddey, but we’ll save any conversation about him for another week as he nurses a hip injury. **
Save your Zion Williams anxiety for another day. The Pelicans are sneakily one of the league’s more enjoyable watches since Feb. 1, an 8–4 stretch including a three-game winning streak after the All-Star break. Brandon Ingram is has regained his scoring instinct after initially deferring to CJ McCollum, and this is a deeper rotation than many give it credit for. One mainstay in that group: Jones.
The Alabama product has been a revelation for New Orleans, providing production on both ends as a wing. Jones has some verve off the bounce, and he’s not a poor shooter, though both skills pale in comparison to his defensive ability. Jones plays with a maniacal spirit, leading all rookies in steals (89) and deflections (176). Jones’s wingspan bothers even larger wings. He can hold his own against opposing bigs. New Orleans found a gem in the second round as it looks to return to the postseason.
6. Jalen Green, Rockets
Don’t look now, but here comes Green. His 27-point performance against Utah on Wednesday night marked one of his best performances of the season, and he’s looked increasingly comfortable over the last month. Green is averaging 18.6 points per game in his last eight contests on 47.5 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from three. He’s no longer shying away from contact at the rim, and he’s even showing improved acumen as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. So what do we want to see from Green before the season ends? A simple increase in reps would be welcome. Green sported a relatively paltry usage rate early in the year, though that mark is up to a healthy 22% (No. 5 among all rookies) entering Friday night. He still has the talent to be an All-Star, though he’s currently dealing with too many cooks in the kitchen to work toward his full potential. Houston would be well served to hand the keys over to Green as much as possible down the stretch.
Honorable Mention: Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors
The Warriors are struggling with four losses in their last five games, but their rookie forward continues dunking on everything in sight. He has 48 slams in 50 games, with 17.7% of all baskets coming as dunks. That’s the same rate as Mobley and a better mark than Giannis Antetokounmpo. Kuminga is still plenty raw as a player, though he provides a necessary spark of athleticism and ferocity to Golden State’s roster. Kuminga isn’t simply a place-holder in Green’s absence. He should be a major rotation piece for Steve Kerr in the postseason.
