ORLANDO, Fla. — With the NBA draft combine and lottery in the rearview mirror, teams around the league have a better idea of where they stand ahead of the June 23 draft.
The draft will kick off with the Orlando Magic, who secured the top pick by winning the lottery on May 17 for the fourth time in franchise history. The Magic also have two second-round picks at Nos. 32 and 35.
A significant amount of Orlando’s front office was at the combine in Chicago last week, including president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond.
They interviewed players across their draft board, but their best evaluations of top prospects — most of whom didn’t participate in on-court work during the combine or agency-run Pro Days — will come during workouts and meetings in Orlando during the next month.
Duke’s Paolo Banchero, Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren and Auburn’s Jabari Smith are considered the top players in the draft. The clock is ticking on the Magic.
Here’s the Orlando Sentinel’s post-lottery mock draft based on intel gathered in Chicago:
1. Orlando Magic: Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga)
— Height: 7 feet | Weight: 195 pounds | Age: 20
— 2021-22 averages (freshman season): 14.1 points (60.7% from the field — 73.7% on 2s, 39% on 3s), 9.9 rebounds, 3.7 blocks, and 1.9 assists.
Rival executives and scouts believe the No. 1 pick will come down to two players: Holmgren and Smith.
The case for Holmgren: A skillset and versatility on both ends of the floor not often seen from a player his height.
His rare combination of rim protection, playmaking and floor-spacing ability, handles, touch near the rim and basketball IQ for a player his size makes him one of the more distinctive prospects in a while. Holmgren’s dynamic in transition, uses both hands well on finishes, is an instinctual cutter, can create his own shot and could have the versatility to play in multiple defensive schemes.
The case for Smith: He’s considered this year’s best shooting prospect after knocking down 42% of his 3s (5.5 attempts) during his lone season with the Tigers.
Smith would instantly make life easier offensively in the half court and can get off his shot in multiple situations — spot-ups, turnarounds, coming off screens and pull-ups — without needing to create a significant advantage because of his size. He’s also a tenacious defender who could switch across multiple positions.
The Magic have made it clear they’ll continue to be patient with their rebuild and will choose who they feel is “the best fit for our team and who we feel will have the biggest long-range impact,” as Weltman said.
Orlando isn’t in a rush and there’s a belief that Holmgren could become the best player from this class even if it takes him longer to reach his peak compared to his contemporaries.
It helps that Holmgren fits the mold of prospects the Magic have shown an affinity for under Weltman and Hammond — lankier players who have the potential to be versatile on both ends.
Weltman and Hammond can afford to be patient after receiving contract extensions earlier this year through the 2025-26 season.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Jabari Smith (Auburn)
— Height: 6-foot-10 | Weight: 220 pounds | Age: 19
— 2021-22 averages (freshman season): 16.9 points (42.9% from the field — 43.5% on 2s, 42% on 3s), 7.4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals and 1 block.
With Holmgren off the board, the Thunder will be in a position to take Smith, who’ll be an ideal fit in Oklahoma City.
The Thunder averaged the league’s most drives (61.7) in 2021-22 but only shot 45.2% off those drives, which was tied with the Magic for the league’s third-worst mark.
With the backcourt duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, Smith won’t be tasked with too many ball-handling responsibilities.
This will help him take a patient approach with improving his handles and interior scoring — steps that must be taken to become the go-to scorer he has the potential of being.
3. Houston Rockets: Paolo Banchero (Duke)
— Height: 6-foot-10 | Weight: 250 | Age: 19
— 2021-22 averages (freshman season): 17.2 points (47.8% from the field — 52.5% on 2s, 33.8% on 3s), 7.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.1 steals.
Banchero may be the closest thing to a go-to offensive option in this class.
He delivered as a scorer in multiple situations with the Blue Devils (post-ups, lobs, cuts, transition, offensive rebounds) and thrived inside the arc. Banchero did well creating off the dribble and could be used as a playmaking hub from the elbows.
The Rockets, who have Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. in the backcourt, could use frontcourt help. Houston taking Banchero would likely be seen as taking the best player available.
4. Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray (Iowa)
— Height: 6-foot-8 | Weight: 225 | Age: 21
— 2021-22 averages (sophomore season): 23.5 points (55.4% from the field — 62.1% on 2s, 39.8% on 3s), 8.7 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 1.5 assists and 1.3 steals.
Kentucky’s Shaedon Sharpe and Purdue’s Jaden Ivey also will be on the board for Sacramento, but with the Kings in win-now mode, they’ll likely go with the prospect who’ll fit the easiest and will be ready to contribute immediately.
Enter Murray, who blossomed during his second season with the Hawkeyes as a versatile frontcourt defender and reliable scoring option.
Murray doesn’t need plays called for him to get a bucket and can thrive off cuts and in transition. He can fill in the gaps on both ends as a high-end role player between De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and Harrison Barnes.
5. Detroit Pistons: Shaedon Sharpe (Kentucky)
— Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 200 | Age: 18
— 2021-22 averages (freshman season): N/A.
Sharpe is this year’s biggest mystery after not playing at Kentucky.
But his upside is believed to be an ideal fit next to a primary ballhandler like Cade Cunningham, last year’s No. 1 pick.
Sharpe has star potential because of his high-level athleticism, shot-creating ability and shooting. Reliable three-level scorers aren’t easy to find, and it’s believed Sharpe can become one.
It’d be understandable if Detroit went with a safer prospect such as Ivey, who’s a special athlete and shot-creator, too.
There are many questions surprising Sharpe: How will he mentally and physically adjust after not playing in college? Where is he at defensively? How many of his skills will translate after not playing against high-level competition in over a year?
The Pistons are in a position to take a swing and bet on Sharpe’s upside.
