December Nymex natural gas (NGZ23) on Wednesday closed down by -0.081 (-2.27%).
Nat-gas prices Wednesday closed moderately lower after weather forecasts turned warmer for the U.S., which would curb heating demand for nat-gas. Forecaster Maxar Technologies said warmer temperatures are expected in the southern portion of the U.S. and western U.S. from Nov 6-10, although temperatures in the northeastern U.S. will remain cold.
Nat-gas prices have support from concern about global supplies after Chevron shut down a nat-gas production field in Israel earlier this month because of safety concerns tied to the Israel-Hamas conflict. As a result of the drop in fuel flows, Egypt said it is re-examining plans to export LNG to Europe.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Wednesday was 101.8 bcf/day (+3.4% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Wednesday was 89.7 bcf/day (+34.7% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals on Wednesday were 14.6 bcf/day (+6.9% w/w), according to BNEF.
High inventories caused by carryover from the mild 2022/23 winter and weak heating demand have undercut nat-gas prices. Gas storage across Europe was 99% full as of October 29, above the 5-year seasonal average of 90% full for this time of year. U.S. nat-gas inventories as of October 20 were +5.2% above their 5-year seasonal average.
An increase in U.S. electricity output is bullish for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended October 28 rose +3.6% y/y to 71,340 GWh (gigawatt hours), although cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending October 28 fell -0.5% y/y to 4,094,392 GWh.
The consensus is for Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories to climb by +79 bcf.
Last Thursday's EIA nat-gas inventories report for the week ended October 20 showed an increase of +74 bcf, which was less than the consensus of +79 bcf but above the 5-year average of +66 bcf. As of October 20, nat-gas inventories were up +9.0% y/y and were +5.2% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended October 27 fell by -1 rig to 117 rigs, modestly above the 19-month low of 113 rigs posted September 8. Active rigs this year have fallen back after climbing to a 4-year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022 from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
