July Nymex natural gas (NGN24) on Tuesday closed up by +0.121 (+4.34%).
July nat-gas prices Tuesday closed sharply higher. Updated weather forecasts Tuesday that called for hotter US temperatures fueled a rally in nat-gas prices. Maxar Technologies said Tuesday that forecasts have shifted hotter for parts of the eastern and southern US from June 28-July 2, which will boost nat-has demand from electricity providers to power increased air-conditioning usage.
The outlook for hot summer temperatures in the US is a bullish factor for nat-gas prices. Last Tuesday, the National Weather Service (NWS) said that "the vast majority of the lower 48 US states could see above-average temperatures for the next three months, and for a good portion of states, a hotter-than-normal summer is the most likely scenario."
Lower-48 state dry gas production Tuesday was 98.5 bcf/day (-0.4% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Tuesday was 73.9 bcf/day (+12.6% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Tuesday were 12.5 bcf/day (-1.2% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US electricity output in the week ended June 8 rose +10.89% y/y to 84,405 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending June 8 rose +1.02% y/y to 4,121,928 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended June 7 rose by +74 bcf, above expectations of +72 bcf but below the 5-year average build for this time of year of +89 bcf. As of June 7, nat-gas inventories were up +12.9% y/y and were +23.9% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 73% full as of June 16, above the 5-year seasonal average of 63% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending June 14 was unchanged at a 2-3/4 year low of 98 rigs. Active rigs have fallen since climbing to a 4-3/4 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022 from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
