June Nymex natural gas (NGM23) on Tuesday closed up +0.029 (+1.30%).
Jun nat-gas prices moved higher for a second day on reduced nat-gas production in Canada. A total of 94 wildfires were burning in Alberta on Tuesday, with 26 classified as out of control. That has led to the shutdown of many oil and natural gas wells and pipeline systems in western Canada. About 2.5 bcf/day of nat-gas production, about 15% of Canada's production, has been shut down by the fires.
Nat-gas prices fell sharply starting in December and posted a 2-1/2 year nearest-futures low (NGK23) Apr 14 as abnormally mild weather across the northern hemisphere this past winter eroded heating demand for nat-gas. January was the sixth-warmest across the contiguous 48 U.S. states in data from 1895. This winter's warm temperatures have caused rising nat-gas inventories in Europe and the United States. Gas storage across Europe was 60% full as of Apr 30, well above the 5-year seasonal average of 40% full for this time of year. Nat-gas inventories in the U.S. were +19.8% above their 5-year seasonal average as of Apr 28.
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Tuesday was 98.3 bcf (+1.5% y/y), just below the record high of 101.7 bcf posted on Apr 23, according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Tuesday was 65.3 bcf/day, up +5.3% y/y, according to BNEF. On Tuesday, LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals were 12.2 bcf, down -7.6% w/w and the lowest in 6 weeks. On Apr 16, LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals rose to a record 14.9 bcf/day as nat-gas exports continue to increase from the Freeport LNG terminal as the terminal was partially reopened after being closed since last June because of an explosion.
A decline in U.S. electricity output is bearish for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended Apr 29 fell -2.2% y/y to 68,356 GWh (gigawatt hours). Although, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending Apr 29 rose +0.8% y/y to 4,105,771 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since it showed U.S. nat gas inventories rose +54 bcf, above expectations of +52 bcf but well below the five-year average for this time of year of +78 bcf. Nat-gas inventories as of Apr 28 are +19.8% above their 5-year seasonal average.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended May 5 fell by -4 to 157 rigs, just below the 3-1/4 year high of 166 rigs posted in the week ended Sep 9. Active rigs have more than doubled from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
