September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are trending down -0.03% this morning as investors assessed the impact of a widespread cyber outage that hit banks, airlines, and broadcasters.
Computer systems failed worldwide on Friday, disrupting services at airlines, banks, and the London Stock Exchange after a widely used cybersecurity program crashed and Microsoft separately reported issues with its cloud services. CrowdStrike Holdings alerted customers on Friday that its Falcon Sensor threat-monitoring product was causing crashes in Microsoft’s Windows operating system. At the same time, it was unclear what caused the issues, which coincided with disruptions in Microsoft’s Azure cloud and 365 services.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended lower. Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) tumbled over -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the world’s largest pizza company reported weaker-than-expected Q2 total domestic comparable sales growth and suspended its target of opening more than 1,100 global net stores. Also, mega-cap technology stocks lost ground, with Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) falling more than -2%. In addition, Elevance Health (ELV) slid over -3% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy. On the bullish side, D.R. Horton (DHI) surged more than +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the homebuilder reported upbeat Q3 results and announced a new $4.0 billion stock buyback program.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +20K to 243K, compared with the 229K expected. Also, the U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 13.9, stronger than expectations of 2.7. In addition, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.2% m/m in June, better than expectations of -0.3% m/m.
“The Fed asked to see more evidence of a cooling economy, and for the most part, they’ve gotten it,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Add [Thursday’s] weekly jobless claims to the list of rate-cut-friendly data points. The path to September remains open.”
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that the Fed may need to cut interest rates soon to prevent a sharper deterioration in the labor market, which has cooled in recent months. While the Fed’s battle against inflation continues, several months of improving data have reassured him that officials are on course to reduce inflation to their 2% target, Goolsbee said. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that some recent inflation data has been “really good,” but the Fed has not yet attained price stability. “We’re not there yet,” Daly said. “We don’t have price stability right now and we need to be very confident that we’re on a sustainable path to achieve it.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July FOMC meeting and a 95.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at September’s policy meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like American Express (AXP), Schlumberger (SLB), Travelers (TRV), Halliburton (HAL), and Regions Financial (RF) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday. However, investors will likely focus on speeches from New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.192%, up +0.12%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down -0.61% this morning, marking the fifth consecutive session of losses, the longest streak since October. Travel and mining stocks led the declines on Friday. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday that the U.K.’s monthly retail sales tumbled in June, impacted by election uncertainty, poor weather, and low foot traffic. Separately, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed on Friday that German annual producer prices fell at a slower rate in June compared to the previous month, yet still marked the 12th consecutive month of producer deflation. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank held interest rates steady on Thursday in a widely expected move, but ECB President Christine Lagarde said the next decision in September was “wide open.” In corporate news, Sartorius Ag (SRT3.D.DX) plunged over -16% after the pharmaceutical equipment supplier lowered its full-year guidance. Also, Ubisoft Entertain (UBI.FP) tumbled more than -14% after the French video game maker reported weaker-than-expected Q1 net bookings and provided mixed full-year targets.
U.K.’s Retail Sales, U.K.’s Core Retail Sales, and Germany’s PPI data were released today.
U.K. June Retail Sales came in at -1.2% m/m and -0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.6% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
U.K. June Core Retail Sales arrived at -1.5% m/m and -0.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
The German June PPI has been reported at +0.2% m/m and -1.6% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.1% m/m and -1.6% y/y.
Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.17%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.16%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher today as investors digested policy signals from the Third Plenum and anticipated more details from the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Gains in semiconductor stocks led the overall market higher on Friday. The communique from the Third Plenum, released late Thursday, did not include any major announcements intended to boost economic growth. President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of leveraging the market’s potential by relaxing restrictions and enforcing effective regulations to maintain order and address market challenges. Chinese officials are also aiming to double the country’s economy by 2035 through innovation, sustainability, private sector support, and stability-focused economic strategies. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note that the outcome of China’s Third Plenum meeting indicates a more favorable near-term stance from policymakers, while Citi economists said in a note that the communique from the Third Plenum likely suggests that incremental stimulus measures are underway. In corporate news, Shenzhen Injoinic Technology climbed about +5% after purchasing land for 22.7 million yuan, which will serve as the location for a planned research and development and operation headquarters for its subsidiary, Zhuhai Yingjixin Semiconductor.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly lower today. Energy, pharmaceutical, and machinery stocks underperformed on Friday. Government data released on Friday revealed that Japan’s core consumer prices rose 2.6% in June from a year earlier, marking a second consecutive month of acceleration and stoking some expectations that interest rate hikes might be imminent. Separately, the Cabinet Office on Friday raised its inflation forecast to 2.8% from 2.5% for the fiscal year ending March 2025 to account for the effects of the yen’s depreciation. It also lowered its real growth projection to 0.9% from 1.3% to account for the impact of production halts by certain automakers. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields edged down on Friday as investors assessed the outlook for interest rates domestically and in the United States ahead of crucial central bank meetings at the end of the month. More than three-quarters of economists said in a Reuters poll that the Bank of Japan would forgo raising interest rates at its policy-setting meeting at the end of July as it aims to stimulate sluggish economic growth. The yen steadied against the greenback following a decline on Thursday. In corporate news, Disco slid over -4% after the maker of chip-manufacturing devices reported weaker-than-expected Q1 results. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +3.61% to 19.53.
The Japanese June National Core CPI came in at +2.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.7% y/y.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) tumbled over -13% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity firm told NBC that it had suffered a major outage on Friday, impacting businesses all around the world. “CrowdStrike is aware of reports of crashes on Windows hosts related to the Falcon Sensor,” CrowdStrike said in a recorded message.
Microsoft (MSFT) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after reporting issues impacting its Azure cloud services and Microsoft 365 suite of apps.
Plug Power (PLUG) plunged more than -10% in pre-market trading after announcing a $200 million public share offering.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 results.
Arm Holdings (ARM) gained more than +3% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $190.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - July 19th
American Express (AXP), Schlumberger (SLB), Travelers (TRV), Halliburton (HAL), Fifth Third (FITB), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Regions Financial (RF), Autoliv (ALV), Comerica (CMA), Badger Meter (BMI), Euronet (EEFT).
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