The arrival of DeVante Parker is likely to spell the departure of N’Keal Harry. It’s that simple. Parker is the type of player that Harry, a 2019 first-round pick, was supposed to develop into. New England tried — perhaps too long — to develop Harry within their system with plenty of opportunities to earn a spot as the team’s outside receiver. He couldn’t handle it.
So they had to bring in Parker, who joined the Patriots in a trade that sent a third-round pick to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for the receiver and a fifth-round pick. Parker is familiar with the expectations of being a first-round pick, but he was much closer to fitting the billing of a WR1. In fact, in 2019 (his only season where he played every game), he was just that. But in every other season, Parker has struggled with injuries, which has hampered his production. He has eclipsed 1,000 yards just once.
Because of his inconsistent production, it’s unclear how Parker will fit into the Patriots offense — and how big his role will be.
So that begs the question: Will Parker’s arrival impact receiver Nelson Agholor? Might the Patriots explore trading Agholor?
New England will not cut Agholor. The dead cap charge of $10 million is far too substantial. But if the Patriots traded him, they would free up roughly $9 million in cap space. That’s a big number — enough to potentially add one more big piece to this team in 2022 or to save up more cap space for a potentially busy 2023 offseason. (Salary cap space rolls over.) At the trade deadline, teams may make some very good receivers available. There’s a chance DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and Deebo Samuel could be available, among others. There are plenty of reasons to value that $9 million of flexibility.
Agholor is a totally different receiver than Parker. But they do line up in the same place in the offense: on the outside. Parker took just 13% of his 2021 snaps in the slot. Agholor took just 9%. The more they put both players on the field, the more they’re likely to remove Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne — the most product pass-catchers in 2021. So it’s likely the Patriots deploy a rotation of outside receivers with Parker, Agholor and Bourne (who took 36.4% of his snaps in the slot and 62.5% outside).
That’s not even factoring in tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, who are among the highest-paid players at the position. The Patriots are going to want them on the field often in 2022.
On one hand, the Patriots could still use Agholor. As mentioned, Parker’s injury issues are significant, and history suggests he could miss time in 2022. In the event that happens, Agholor’s role will increase. And there’s also a sound argument that, by putting Parker into a rotation, he might be less likely to suffer an injury, with fewer snaps and less stress on his body. Agholor could prove very useful.
On the other hand, the Patriots are set to pay Agholor $11 million in 2022 with a cap number of $14.9 million. Last season, he had 37 catches, 473 yards and three touchdowns. He may see an uptick in his production, even with a lower snap count. But how much upside is there? What if the Patriots find Parker to be consistently effective in the role and Agholor falls to WR4?
There are a lot of hypotheticals with Agholor. Maybe he’ll play better next year. But if you look at his career, you see just one impressive season: 2020 with the Raiders. That looks more like the outlier than the rule. And if the Patriots want to continue to build their team around Mac Jones, they need to bank on better players than Agholor — and Parker for that matter. The Patriots need more help. So they should at least consider moving on from Agholor, if they see other ways to make this team substantially better.
Maybe an opportunity doesn’t present itself. Maybe the Patriots agree to terms on the perfect deal in free agency or the trade market. But if something better comes along, they should consider it.
