It’s a fast-paced world and consumers want actionable snippets and do not have time for scholarly tomes. The same goes for gold (GCQ26) and silver (SIN26) market watchers. Here are my two-minute bull and bear cases on the fundamentals and technicals presently impacting the gold and silver markets, and their potential price implications.
The Bull Case for Gold and Silver
- Longer-term technical charts remain bullish overall. Gold prices have been trending up on the monthly continuation chart for nearby Comex futures since early 2019. That uptrend remains in place despite prices backing down from this year’s record high of $5,586.20, basis nearby futures. Silver futures have been trending up on the monthly chart since early 2020. The longer-term price uptrend in silver remains in place despite silver prices backing well down from this year’s record high of $121.785, basis nearby futures.
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Don’t be fooled. The heightened geopolitical landscape remains price-friendly for safe-haven gold and silver markets. While the gold and silver markets have traded mostly sideways since the start of the U.S.-Iran war in March, major geopolitical events are still destabilizing for many economies and some governments. It can be argued that gold and silver markets had become too frothy early this year and were due for significant downside price corrections. It can also be argued that had the U.S.-Iran war not occurred, gold and silver prices could be trading at much lower levels than they are at present.
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- Major central banks are still stocking up on gold . The so-called smart-money — the major central bankers of the world — continue to add gold to their sovereign reserves.Gold demand from central banks remains robust. They purchased an estimated 244 metric tons in the first quarter of this year, exceeding the previous quarter and the five-year average, according to the World Gold Council.
- Crude oil (CLN26) prices are elevated and expected to remain elevated through at least this year and into 2027. Crude oil is the leader of the raw commodity sector. Its rising tide works to lift all raw commodity boats, including the metals markets.
- Gold and silver are riding the tailwind of rare-earth minerals stockpiling . The move by major industrialized countries to secure rare-earth minerals has spilled over into better demand for physical gold and silver. Such will likely continue to be the case for the next few years.
The Bear Case for Gold and Silver
- If a major war cannot rally gold and silver markets to new highs, what can? Gold and silver bulls have been perplexed that what is arguably one of the biggest geopolitical events of the past half-century has not been able to push gold and silver prices above the highs seen just before the U.S.-Iran war began in March. The bears can argue gold and silver prices hitting record highs early this year overdid it to the upside, as is the case with most major bull runs in commodity markets.
- Rising global interest rates are bearish for gold and silver. Recent trends see gold and silver traders and investors more worried about rising global interest rates crimping world consumer and commercial demand for gold and silver — especially from consumers in India and China. Traders/investors seem less concerned that problematic inflation has been a bullish element for the two precious metals.
- U.S. stock indexes rallying to record highs is pulling money away from gold and silver markets. From a competing asset class perspective, the “risk-on” push to record highs in the major U.S. stock indexes are negative for gold and silver. Indeed, the stock market is climbing the proverbial wall of worry — to the chagrin of the safe-haven gold and silver market bulls.
- The U.S. dollar index ($DXY) is trending higher on the daily bar chart. The rally in the USDX the past month is bearish for gold and silver. The greenback and the two metals have historically traded in an inverse price relationship on a daily basis. A stronger dollar suggests that U.S. interest rates are not likely to fall and that U.S. Treasury yields are likely to remain elevated. Gold and silver carry no yields, so higher bond yields are generally bearish for the metals.
- Gold and silver were booming, and they may now be busting. Raw commodity markets’ price history, going back well over 100 years, proves that commodities are highly cyclical. They go through well-defined periods of boom and bust. Prices don’t go up forever. The record-setting boom in gold and metals may be turning into the bust cycle.
My Bias
From a shorter-term perspective, gold and silver traders are likely to continue to feel the headwinds of a booming stock market, a stronger U.S. dollar, and tighter global monetary policies. The two metals may see sideways-to-lower price action for the next several months, or maybe a bit longer. However, there is no doubt in my mind that in the coming months gold and silver will become value-buying opportunities for longer-term investors.
It’s my strong bias that in the coming years, or sooner, both gold and silver will notch new record highs, and likely by a good margin above what they scored this past winter. That’s not a bold prediction. That’s just a statement on what commodity markets’ price history has consistently proven over the past decades.
Tell me what you think. I read every one of your emails. My email address is jim@jimwyckoff.com. I enjoy getting feedback from all of you, my valued Barchart readers.
