Mountain West Football: Who Had The Most Turnover Luck in 2022?
ESPN’s Bill Connelly looked back at fortunes that were shaped by a knack for taking the ball away (or not) in 2022.
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Some interesting revelations.
After previously measuring how FBS ranked by returning production for 2023 and by initial SP+ projections, ESPN’s Bill Connelly took a closer look at how the 2022 season got shaped by turnover luck.
In particular, Connelly examined fumble luck and the ratio of interceptions to pass breakups, both of which are hard to predict at any given time and could be something to watch with regard to regression candidates, both positive and negative, in the Mountain West. He notes that “a turnover is worth about 4-5 points in terms of field position value”, meaning that it can be a fairly significant influence on the outcome of any single game.
As proof of that point, Connelly’s list of offenses that were impacted most by opponents turning defended passes into interceptions includes Utah State. The Aggies threw 21 interceptions on 398 total pass attempts, a staggering 5.2% rate that also happened to represent a full one-third (33.3%) of passes defended against them, one of eight unfortunate teams to crack 30%. If Cooper Legas can stay healthy and make strides with the starting job in hand next fall, that could make Utah State a positive regression candidate after a disappointing 2022.
How did the conference stack up as a whole?
- 125. Fresno State: -9.7 turnover luck, -3.1 points per game
- 121. Colorado State: -7.0 turnover luck, -2.6 points per game
- 119. Utah State: -7.3 turnover luck, -2.5 points per game
- 91. Wyoming: -3.1 turnover luck, -1.1 points per game
- 49. San Diego State: 1.6 turnover luck, +0.6 points per game
- 43. Boise State: 2.3 turnover luck, +0.7 points per game
- 41. Hawaii: 2.4 turnover luck, +0.8 points per game
- 32. Air Force: 3.0 turnover luck, +1.1 points per game
- 31. UNLV: 2.9 turnover luck, +1.1 points per game
- 26. Nevada: 3.7 turnover luck, +1.4 points per game
- 25. New Mexico: 3.8 turnover luck, +1.4 points per game
- 12. San Jose State: 6.8 turnover luck, +2.5 points per game
There are a few surprising results here. Fresno State won the conference championship despite the worst overall turnover luck in the Mountain West, though adding a little context to that can clarify: The Bulldogs had 13 turnovers in a six-game stretch between losing Jake Haener to injury against USC and rallying to defeat San Diego State, but just one turnover in the other eight contests. His replacement, whether it’s Logan Fife, Jaylen Henderson, or Mikey Keene, will have big shoes to fill to keep the offense from sliding backward on that front.
Another interesting detail is that some of the conference’s worst teams, namely Nevada and New Mexico, had very good fortune with turnovers which could be hard to replicate in 2023 without improvements on offense. Additionally, San Jose State led the conference thanks to the strength of outrageously good interception luck, posting a 9.3 figure which was surpassed in FBS by just USC and Western Kentucky. Chevan Cordeiro’s 2.3% interception rate represented a career-best, but it remains to be seen if he can hold onto that gain while the defense looks to replace impact players like Viliami Fehoko, Cade Hall, and Nehemiah Shelton.
