Immigration is a hot topic among voters this election cycle, but there's probably no place where it holds such weight as in Arizona, not only one of seven swing states that could determine the upcoming election, but a state where Arizonans will also be casting a ballot on Proposition 314, a law that would make it a state crime for migrants to enter the state from any location other than ports of entry.
If the proposition is passed, crossing the border illegally would be a Class 1 misdemeanor under state law. For people previously convicted of illegal entry, that charge would rise to a Class 6 felony. The law would also empower state judges to order deportations. But how does this proposition align with Arizonans' presidential preferences, especially among Latinos in the state? A new Arizona State University sought out to answer that question, revealing insights into the demographic's perspectives and concerns.
The survey was conducted by ASU's Center for Latina/a American Politics and Hispanic Research Center, shows Arizona's Latino voters favor Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race, with 51% support compared to former President Donald Trump's 32%, which aligns with the Democrat's support among Latino registered voters nationwide and Arizona's general registered voters, both at around 51%.
Surprisingly, however, the survey also revealed that a majority of Latinos also supports Proposition 314, suggesting Arizona voters will favor a tougher border policy at local and state level regardless of which candidate reaches the White House.
The border "is a real concern for Latinos living in border towns," said Stella Rouse, on of the study's authors to AZ Central. "The border is "a primary issue for Arizona voters and, particularly, Arizona Latino voters." Border security, in fact, is one of the most important issues for Arizona Latino registered voters, only surpassed by income improvements and job creation.
Another major finding from the study was that a significant portion of Latino voters (approximately 17%) still remains undecided or plans to vote for candidates other than Harris or Trump, indicating a possible impact from continued voter outreach efforts.
"This is why they're still out there canvassing, hitting the pavement because they know there are voters who haven't yet cast their ballot and they're wondering, 'Are they persuadable?' said Francisco Pedraza, another of the study's authors. "Our data says, to some extent, there are a few they may impact like this."
"In our mind, there's still a lot of movement in the electorate, and certainly things that happened here in the last week could potentially make a difference in how the election falls out," Rouse added, referring to the "floating island of garbage" comment made at a Trump rally on Sunday which has sent shockwaves across the country.
As for Arizona's U.S. Senate race, the poll showed that Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego leads Republican candidate Kari Lake among general registered voters by 47% to 31%. Among Latino registered voters, Gallego holds a 45% to 31% lead over Lake. If elected, Gallego would be Arizona's first Latino U.S. Senator.
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