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The Conversation
The Conversation
Politics
W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of Communication

Some midterm polls were on-target – but finding which pollsters and poll aggregators to believe can be challenging

A prominent GOP poll said Democratic U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire would lose her re-election bid to a Republican. Hassan won by 9 percentage points. AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Pollsters indulged in breezy self-congratulation in the aftermath of the 2022 midterm elections. Pre-election polls, they declared, did well overall in signaling outcomes of high-profile U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.

In an allusion to polling’s stunning misfires of 2016 and 2020, Joshua Dyck, director of the opinion research center at UMass Lowell, asserted as the 2022 results became known: “The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.”

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