Kerala has reasons to cheer as the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over the State perhaps a week ahead of the normal onset of June 1. A weather bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that southwest monsoon is likely to advance into South Andaman Sea and the adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal around May 15.
Normally, the monsoon covers the entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 22 and reaches Kerala by June 1 with an error margin of +/-5 days.
Speaking to The Hindu, a senior IMD scientist said the Asani cyclone had dragged the moisture towards Andaman a week ahead of the normal progress of the monsoon winds. “Further, the weather models are also suggesting that another low-pressure system will form over the South China Sea by May 19, which would help in the establishment and strengthening of monsoon winds towards Kerala, if it crossed to Bay of Bengal,” he said.
K. Santosh, head of the IMD’s regional centre in Thiruvananthapuram, said the weather agency will review the situation and come up with a more accurate forecast by May 15, including the arrival, spatial distribution and its progress towards the north. Weather experts also pointed out that conditions are favourable for an early monsoon onset over Kerala and its northward movement.
The IMD used to announce the arrival of monsoon over Kerala upon the fulfilment of a set of criteria fixed by the weather agency. As per the criteria, at least 8 of 14 specified locations in Kerala and Karnataka should receive above 2.4 mm rain over two days, and have a specific range of land temperatures and wind speeds.
The monsoon, which normally arrives in Kerala around June 1 and covers the rest of India by mid-July, brings about 204 cm annual rainfall in the State, while the northeast monsoon accounts for around 49 cm rain in Kerala.
Meanwhile, the State recorded 69% excess rainfall during the summer season, receiving 33.88 cm rain against the long period average of 20.09 cm from March 1 to May 12.
