The three new federal polls show mixed results – but some good news – for One Nation following a polling slump in response to Pauline Hanson’s June 17 National Press Club address. This is particularly marked in Morgan, where One Nation gained 5.5 points to 28% after dropping nine points in the prior two weeks from a high of 31.5%.
In DemosAU and Resolve, One Nation is down but the Coalition has made gains. The total vote for One Nation and the Coalition is 50% in DemosAU (up two), 49% in Resolve (steady) and 48% in Morgan (up four).
Morgan is a weekly poll, while the other two are monthly. If DemosAU and Resolve had been conducted in the week after Hanson’s address, they would probably have shown a greater drop for One Nation.
Both DemosAU and Resolve suggest Hanson has unpopular policies, which Labor will attack closer to the election.
A Victorian Resolve poll has Labor and the Coalition tied on 27% of the primary vote with One Nation at 22%.
Resolve poll
A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted July 6–11 from a large sample of 2,252, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (steady since the mid-June Resolve poll), One Nation 26% (down three), the Coalition 23% (up three), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 6% (down one) and others 5% (steady).
While there was no published two-party estimate, The Age’s article says “Labor is still in front of both conservative parties on a two-party-preferred basis”.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved six points to -14, with 53% giving him a poor rating and 39% a good one. This is his best net approval in Resolve since last December. Angus Taylor’s improved one point to +7 (41% good, 34% poor). Hanson’s net likeability was down 11 points to +3, though Barnaby Joyce’s was up one point to -2.
In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 33% (up four), Hanson 25% (down eight) and Taylor 21% (up five).
Respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with various One Nation policies. They disagreed with withdrawing from the UN (40–25 disagree), with reducing ABC funding and making it a paid subscription service (40–31), with defunding SBS (36–29), with making Australia a monocultural country (39–33) and with making it easier for companies to sack people (36–32).
Respondents agreed with dropping net zero, with a focus on fossil fuels over renewables in the future by 39–27. And they agreed that Australia should reconsider the appropriate conditions for abortions by 33–28.
The Liberals led Labor by 28–26 on economic management with 30% for someone else (26–25 in June). There was a 24–24 tie on keeping the cost of living low after Labor led by 24–20 in June.
DemosAU poll
A national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted July 3–8 from a large sample of 2,694, gave One Nation 29% of the primary vote (down one since the mid-June DemosAU poll), Labor 26% (down one), the Coalition 21% (up three), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 19% (down two). No two-party estimate was provided.
Albanese’s net positive score was steady at -23 (48% negative, 25% positive). Taylor’s was up three points to -3 (27% negative, 24% positive). Hanson’s was down six points to -9 (43% negative, 34% positive).
In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 35% (steady), Hanson 26% (down two) and Taylor 22% (up three). In head to head matchups, Albanese led Hanson by 42–37, but was tied with Taylor at 38–38.
By 72–16, respondents did not think Australia needs a PM like Donald Trump. Views on Hanson’s policies were far more negative than in Resolve, with respondents disagreeing by 58–12 with abolishing SBS, 54–21 with privatising the ABC, 51–25 with Australia becoming monocultural and 43–32 with employers having more flexibility to dismiss workers.
Jacqui Lambie was the most popular federal politician assessed, with a net positive score of +5. Nationals leader Matt Canavan was at -2, Liberal Andrew Hastie at -3, former Liberal PM Malcolm Turnbull at -8, former Liberal PM Tony Abbott at -9, former Labor PM Kevin Rudd at -10, Barnaby Joyce at -13, Greens leader Larissa Waters at -13 and former Liberal PM Scott Morrison at -22.
Of current Labor ministers, Penny Wong was at -8, Mark Butler at -9, Richard Marles at -12, Tanya Plibersek at -13 and Jim Chalmers at -19.
Morgan poll: One Nation surges back
A national Morgan poll, conducted July 6–12 from a sample of 1,612, gave One Nation 28% of the primary vote (up 5.5 since the early July Morgan poll), Labor 27.5% (down 0.5), the Coalition 20% (down 1.5), the Greens 12.5% (down 1.5) and all Others 12% (down two).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 52.5–47.5, a 3.5-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a one-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition.
Victorian Resolve poll: Labor and Coalition up slightly
The Victorian election is in late November. A Resolve poll for The Age, conducted July 6–11 from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor 27% of the primary vote (up one since the May to June Resolve poll), the Coalition 27% (up one), One Nation 22% (down two), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 7% (up two) and others 5% (down two).
No two-party estimate was provided, but analyst Kevin Bonham estimated a Coalition lead over Labor of about 51–49.
Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s net likeability was down one point to -36. Liberal Jess Wilson led Allan as preferred premier by 43–24 (39–20 previously).
By 45–19, respondents thought the state’s outlook would get worse rather than better. By 38–27, they were pessimistic about their personal outlook, though optimism was up three points.
On Labor and Allan, 30% said they deserved another term (up five). On the Liberals and Wilson, 47% said they are capable of governing (up one).
Last Saturday The Age said Labor plans to abolish group voting tickets in the upper house, with legislation to be passed in late July with the Coalition’s support. If this occurs, Victoria will be the last Australian jurisdiction to abolish this discredited system.
Tasmanian DemosAU poll has One Nation on 21%
A Tasmanian DemosAU poll, conducted June 21 to July 6 from a sample of 999, gave the Liberals 28% of the vote (down seven since the February DemosAU poll), Labor 21% (down two), One Nation 21% (not previously asked for), the Greens 14% (down one), independents 12% (down five), the Shooters 2% (down two) and others 2% (down four).
Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two-party estimate isn’t applicable. With the Liberals and One Nation on a combined 49%, a combined majority for these two parties would be likely on this poll.
Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net positive score was down five points to -3 (38% negative, 35% positive). Labor leader Josh Willie’s was up one point to -6 (29% negative, 23% positive). Rockliff led Willie as preferred premier by 41–32 (43–32 in February).
Liberal Treasurer Eric Abetz’s net positive score was down four points to -25 (42% negative, 17% positive), giving him the worst of the nine politicians tested. Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff’s was up nine points to -12.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
