It seems a paradox. The generation that has just become the largest voting bloc in Victoria – millennials – happens to be the one facing the most significant obstacles to home ownership.
As Kos Samaras – a RedBridge pollster and former Labor strategist – puts it: gen Z and millennials will double the number of baby boomers on the electoral roll by the 2026 state election.
This is something Jacinta Allan is keenly aware of, and she is staking her premiership on the goal of helping millennials – and, by extension, gen Z – secure their own homes.
Speaking to Guardian Australia after a week of housing announcements, which aim to boost housing density across Melbourne’s established suburbs, Allan says her focus is not simply political, but about equality.
She says it is “deeply unfair” that the Australian dream of owning a home has become unreachable for many young people.
“I had the opportunity in my 20s to buy, to get into the housing market, to get that stability and security. But I have family members who are their 20s now that don’t have that opportunity,” Allan says.
“I know this is happening in so many families across the state.”
She says when she bought her first home, the ratio of house prices to the median wage was three to one. Now, it’s 12 to one.
There’s also the wealth divide. The pathway to home ownership is becoming increasingly reliant on the so-called “bank of mum and dad”.
Recent research from the Australian Housing Monitor found nearly half of all first home buyers received financial support from their parents, up from 15% in the 1980s. Another study by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute found that a gift of $10,000 or more made a first home purchase 90% more likely.
“It shouldn’t be the lottery of birth that determines whether you buy a home or not,” Allan says.
For those who do manage to climb on to the property ladder, Allan says many are forced to buy homes far from family and work, often commuting for hours each day.
Allan’s solution, put simply, is to create an environment that will lead to the construction of more homes, “everywhere”.
However, Erika Martino, a research fellow at the University of Melbourne and urban planner, remains sceptical that such change will eventuate.
“I love the fact we’ve had all these policy announcements, that they’re taking a Fast and Furious approach to fix the housing crisis, but it’s totally unclear how we will achieve it,” Martino says.
“Because at the end of the day, it’s not the government that drives housing development, developers do. Will developers actually do what the government is asking them?”
Labor’s policy pentathlon
Allan says her steady stream of announcements this week isn’t an attempt to throw everything at a problem and see what sticks. Instead, each policy “locks in together”, she says.
To stimulate development in the short-term, the government on Monday announced a 12-month discount on stamp duty for all off-the-plan units, townhouses and apartments.
To ensure infrastructure keeps pace with demand, on Tuesday Allan announced the overhaul of a scheme to ensure developers pay for schools, parks and roads in the areas they build.
On Wednesday came a 10-year plan to release greenfield land on Melbourne’s fringes, and the proposed sale of government-owned land near Footscray and Oakleigh train stations to facilitate urban growth.
A new building watchdog was announced on Thursday to ensure builders rectify substandard work and prevent the sale of defective apartments, as well as a review to make it easier for homeowners to build townhouses on their land.
As the week wrapped up, regional housing initiatives were announced, with rental reforms expected to come.
Yet the proposal that preceded them all is still creating the most headlines.
Last weekend, Allan released a plan to create 50 new higher-density zones around train and tram stations, which could drastically change some of Melbourne’s established suburbs in the south-east, including Armadale, Brighton, Malvern and Toorak.
Allan says the plan had been “in her head” for years, stemming from her time as transport infrastructure minister working on level crossing removals.
“Removing level crossings created space,” she says.
It happens to be the case that most of the 25 announced “activity zones” are located in Liberal seats.
Allan chose one of them, Brighton, to make the announcement – and was met with a protest of residents and their local MP James Newbury, who fired up the crowd by warning of potential “20-storey apartment” towers in their streets.
Labor MPs and their staff were privately pleased with the display, as it allowed Allan to frame both the Liberals and protesters as “blockers” to the plan.
Can’t lose seats you don’t hold
Samaras, the pollster, says the plan is an attempt to address the “number one issue” among the largest voting block – Victorians aged under 45. It’s also an issue for older generations, who want their children to be in the property market.
“An overwhelming majority of Australians believe that housing is unattainable for the younger generation,” he says.
According to a recent RedBridge poll, only 15% of respondents believe home ownership is attainable for young people without family assistance, while 8% feel the standard of living in Australia will improve for the next generation.
Ben Raue, an electoral analyst says Allan’s approach is “clever politics”.
“Labor can do this sort of work in seats like Brighton because they don’t hold them, they won’t lose them,” he says.
“But there’s also a long game – because as more people move into those apartments, they’re more likely to be Labor voters too, it could see these safe Liberal seat’s demographics change over time.”
Martino says there was a pressing need for transit-oriented development in the city’s middle suburbs. But it must include housing for key workers, affordable options for low-income earners and larger-style apartments for families – elements developers are often reluctant to invest in.
On this front, Allan insists that any developer seeking fast-tracked approvals will need to include a minimum of 10% social and affordable housing in their construction project.
She is also loathe to weigh in on the two federal tax concessions that many believe exacerbate the wealth divide: negative gearing and capital gains. Several federal MPs have been agitating for changes but she says it’s not her place to “give advice from afar”.
Allan says her focus remains on helping people to buy their first home, to build their long-term wealth and security.
“This is the aspiration of working-class people,” she says.
