NEW YORK — Scott Rolen was the only member of the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot to be granted induction by the writers, and next year he’ll be joined by one of the only men on the planet who can credibly claim to be a better third baseman than he was.
Along with that defensive maestro (whose 3,166 hits will make him a shoo-in) there will be some other newcomers who stand no chance of seeing Cooperstown. Players like Jose Bautista, Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez and Brandon Phillips — who all reached the requisite 10 years of service time needed to appear on the ballot — were all excellent players who delivered memorable moments but will fall well short of the necessary vote total.
In breaking down the new batch of players whose Hall of Fame cases will be dissected for the first time next winter, we find the aforementioned lock, and beneath him, a few guys who have very credible merits but will definitely need some time if they’re going to get in.
Adrian Beltre
Armed with a better resume than Rolen, there should be no problem getting Beltre 75% of the vote next year. Beltre is one of 33 big leaguers to amass 3,000 hits, he has five Gold Gloves, four All-Star Game appearances and Silver Sluggers, and even two Platinum Gloves that distinguished him as the very best fielder in the entire league.
Beltre also finished in the top 10 of MVP voting six times, led MLB in homers in 2004, led the league in hits in 2013 and batted .300 in seven different seasons. Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews are the only third basemen with more Wins Above Replacement than Beltre, who is more than deserving of first-ballot Hall of Fame status.
Joe Mauer
Mauer’s case isn’t as ironclad as Beltre’s, but like Rolen, the Twins icon should be inducted after a few years of waiting.
Every catcher ahead of Mauer on Baseball-Reference’s all-time WAR list has a plaque in Cooperstown, as do the two guys behind him (Ted Simmons and Mickey Cochrane). His .306 batting average is just two points shy of the career mark put up by Mike Piazza, widely considered the best offensive catcher ever. While Piazza has the edge in slugging percentage, Mauer has him beat in on-base percentage, something that should help him curry favor with modern voters.
Other things Mauer has going for him: he is the only catcher to ever win three batting titles, he has an MVP on the mantle and he played all 15 years of his career with one team, which strikes a chord for several members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
Chase Utley
Mets fans, shield your eyes. Chase Utley is probably a Hall of Famer.
If Jeff Kent eventually gets in, as many people believe he should, then Utley will sail in right behind him. While Kent has him in home runs, RBIs and OPS, Utley has a slight advantage over Kent in on-base percentage but was miles better as a base runner and defender, part of the reason why he has a 64.5 WAR to Kent’s 55.4.
While WAR certainly isn’t gospel, it does provide some nice context for how complete a player’s career was. Looking at other Hall of Fame second basemen, Utley’s total WAR from his 16 years in the majors outpaces Jackie Robinson and leaves him just one shy of Craig Biggio. Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar, two of the giants of the position, were only better than Utley by 3.5 and 2.5 WAR, respectively.
When taking Utley’s seven home runs in 15 World Series games into account, he seems ticketed for Cooperstown after a few years of waiting his turn.
David Wright and Jose Reyes
As much as the inhabitants of Mets’ land will try, Wright and Reyes don’t quite have the accolades of the other 2024 first-timers.
Wright has a better chance both by virtue of being a third baseman — the Hall of Fame’s most underrepresented position — and playing his entire career with the Mets. If voters take the “contributions to the team(s) on which the player played” clause to heart, Wright’s status as one of the best players in Mets’ history will increase his Hall of Fame odds.
But Wright ranks just 25th in career WAR among third basemen. Using that as a measuring stick, Robin Ventura (56.1) has a stronger case than Wright (49.2). Ventura also won six Gold Gloves to Wright’s two, and still Ventura fell off the ballot in 2010 when he received a drastically low 1.3% of the vote. Active third basemen Evan Longoria, Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado have surpassed Wright as well, stacking the deck against him even more. Wright will likely have to settle for merely being a Mets Hall of Famer and never buying a drink in Queens for the rest of his life.
Reyes could very well go one and done. While he will have the most stolen bases of anyone on next year’s ballot, that’s really the only thing he has going for him. An underwhelming .761 OPS — basically identical to Jacoby Ellsbury, who garnered zero votes this year — plus no All-Star nods in the final seven years of his front-loaded career make Reyes a virtual impossibility. Add in his domestic violence suspension, and this is an open-and-shut case.
Bartolo Colon
While it sure would be fun to include Big Sexy, he doesn’t have the statistical merits that even Mark Buehrle has, and Buehrle grabbed a modest 10.8% share of the vote in 2023, his third try.
