While there are tons of complaints from fan bases across the country over how the NCAA selection committee seeded the 68 teams in the men’s basketball tournament, it appears oddsmakers don’t have too many gripes with how the matchups turned out.
As early betting gets underway for the first round of the tournament on Thursday and Friday, only three lower-seeded teams are considered favorites on the moneyline and against the spread — and even then the difference is pretty marginal.
That is, of course, unless you’re trying to fill out a perfect bracket this year or pick the right team to wager on. Then these lines become pretty significant.
Two of the teams expected to pull off upsets are No. 9 seeds facing a No. 8. The other is a No. 10 seed that should give a fits to a No. 7 seed.
Here’s a look at the opening lines via BetMGM.
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No. 8 Maryland vs No. 9 West Virginia
WVU opened as a 2.5-point favorite against the spread as a lower seed and it’s actually not too shocking. The Mountaineers are known to play a disruptive style of defense, using a full court press to speed up their opponents and control the pace of play. Teams that aren’t used to it will find themselves in trouble rather quickly.
KenPom ranked West Virginia No. 17 overall. Maryland is not too far behind at No. 22. Yet he also predicts the Mountaineers win, 72-71. That would be an outright upset without covering the spread.
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn
Another No. 9 seed slightly favored over a No. 8 seed. Iowa (+1.5) had a pretty inconsistent year, beating the likes of Iowa State, Indiana, Maryland and Northwestern while losing to Purdue, Duke, Nebraska and Ohio State. The Hawkeyes are ranked No. 37 by KenPom compared to Auburn at No. 29.
While this should be an extremely tight game, KenPom predicts a 78-77 Auburn victory.
No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Utah State
Missouri (+1.5) certainly overachieved in its first season under head coach Dennis Gates and enters the NCAA tournament with a bit more hope than many expected.
Which is why it’s pretty unfortunate for Tigers fans that they have to face a Utah State team that just won the Mountain West. The Aggies had an impressive season against mid-major favorites like Oral Roberts, UNLV, New Mexico and Boise State, finishing as the No. 18 team according to KenPom. Missouri is ranked No. 51.
KenPom predicts an 83-79 upset by the Aggies as far as the seeding goes. Oddsmakers wouldn’t call that much of an upset at all.
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