While it may not be so apparent now, but Man United’s win over Brighton could in retrospect be one of the key turning points in their season.
The Red Devils won the game 2-0 thanks to goals from Cristiano Ronaldo — his first of the calendar year — and Bruno Fernandes.
It brought United back above West Ham in the fight for the last remaining Champions League place, with two points separating the pair.
It was Ralf Rangnick’s sixth victory since taking charge at the beginning of December, but only the second in the league in 2022.
United had been struggling for goals and victories since the turn of the year, and so the win over Brighton will do much for improving confidence.
But looking ahead, the next five games will be crucial in defining the outcome of the season for United.
The fixture list hasn’t been kind, with games against Leeds, Watford, Man City, Tottenham and Liverpool all on the horizon.
That’s quite a set of games.
And that’s not to mention that those run of games are punctuated by two games against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League which, given they are managed by Diego Simeone, will be a slog over 180 minutes.
West Ham, by contrast, have games against Newcastle, Wolves, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Tottenham coming up.
You don’t need to be top of your class at school to figure out who has the harder schedule.
It must also be noted that The Hammers will be back in action in the Europa League at the beginning of March, but it remains to be seen whether former United boss David Moyes will take the competition seriously at this point, considering West Ham’s chances of cracking the top four.
From those five fixtures, United lost three of them in the opening half of the season, with the defeats to Watford and Liverpool particularly brutal in their manner — nine goals conceded and one scored.
United are a better team now, marginally, but this run of games will likely decide the outcome of the season.
The loss of Champions League revenue should United finish fifth, while not enormous for the club in comparison to teams from other leagues, will affect the club in the transfer market.
United have earned around £65m in Champions League money this season, even if they are to get eliminated by Atleti in the round of 16. They would likely stand to lose a similar amount next season should they fail to qualify.
But with United a commercial behemoth that are seemingly immune to negotiating sponsorship deals for lesser amounts due to nearly a decade of mediocrity, money isn’t the biggest issue with no Champions League football, but rather the prestige that comes with playing in Europe’s elite competition.
Players want to play in it and will pick other sides who are involved in it over United if necessary, regardless of their size and stature.
Missing out on the Champions League will affect United’s ability to buy in the summer transfer market. Yet United still have destiny in their own hands, with the club sitting in fourth. They simply need to better results in the run-in than West Ham, and avenging those harrowing defeats to Watford and Liverpool would go some way in securing that.
The next five games will be pivotal in outlining the club’s immediate future.
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