With just one month remaining in the regular season, what was once viewed as a runaway race for Rookie of the Year has tightened in recent weeks. Cade Cunningham is in the midst of a dominant stretch as Detroit looks increasingly frisky. Scottie Barnes remains a key contributor as Toronto eyes another playoff appearance. Perhaps Jalen Green is too far back from the pack to earn any real consideration, though he’s playing as well as any player in his class right now. Even with Evan Mobley standing as the presumed favorite, perhaps his lead isn’t as insurmountable as originally assumed.
As we head into the final stretch of the season, let’s assess the Rookie of the Year chances for each top candidate.
Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
The case: Mobley emerged as the front-runner for Rookie of the Year within the season’s first month and holds the lead through early March. The USC product is already a fringe All-Defense candidate, sporting precocious instincts as a rim protector to go along with his mammoth frame. And he’s no stiff with the ball, either. Mobley is a canny interior passer with soft touch extending to the foul line. He plays with more physicality than his still-slight frame suggests, and we’ve seen an increased willingness to attack defenders in isolation in recent weeks. Mobley’s platter of moves is advanced for a player of his age.
Need one simple stat to crystalize Mobley’s case? He’s one of seven rookies in NBA history to average at least 2.5 assists and 1.5 blocks per game. The others: Tim Duncan, Chris Webber, Pau Gasol, Bill Walton, Vince Carter, and, oddly enough, Sam Bowie. Not exactly bad company for Cleveland’s new star.
The verdict: Mobley would be the Rookie of the Year if the season ended today, and he’ll likely end up as the worthy winner of this award at the conclusion of 2021-22. Is he an iron-clad lock to win at this point? I’m not so sure. A more high-usage option could steal this award down the stretch even as Mobley continues his quiet brilliance.
Cade Cunningham, Pistons
The case: Cunningham has pushed himself toward the front of the Rookie of the Year race, well within range of catching Mobley if he can finish with a flourish. The 2021 portion of the season provided the regular headaches for a rookie guard as the turnovers and losses mounted, but of late, Cunningham looks to be everything Detroit hoped for with the No. 1 pick. Cunningham sports a veteran’s calm and control as he operates in the half-court, and his size and craft around the rim allow him to get quality looks late in games. The Pistons have won six of their last nine. Their rotation is near full strength after a rash of early injuries. Cunningham’s numbers are on the rise as his supporting cast improves, validating the flashes of brilliance we saw in the pre-All-Star-break portion of the season.
Not buying the case? Perhaps Pistons coach Dwane Casey can better elaborate.
The verdict: Cunningham won’t have a great case by advanced metrics, and the Pistons aren’t doing him many favors as they trend toward another top-five pick. But Rookie of the Year is often a narrative award as much as anything, and the conversation appears to be trending toward Cunningham in recent weeks. Detroit’s rookie is charismatic, controls a large share of possessions and could add a few scoring outbursts or triple-doubles in the coming weeks. I’ll go out on a bit of a limb and project Cunningham as the Rookie of the Year when the dust settles.
Franz Wagner, Magic
The case: Wagner leads all rookies in total points by a healthy margin, ranking in the top five in total rebounds and assists. The German forward has been a model of consistency for the Magic, appearing in all 67 games as nearly every other key contributor missed extended time. Want to dive a little deeper? Wagner ranks second among all rookies in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR rankings. He sits fourth in his class in win shares, trailing only Scottie Barnes, Mobley and Herb Jones. Wagner’s versatility and steadiness deserve commendation, especially in imperfect circumstances.
The verdict: Wagner would have some degree of a chance here if we compared stats in a vacuum, as the Michigan product truly looks like Orlando’s most promising prospect at the moment. But barring some massive scoring differential, it’s near-impossible for Wagner to win Rookie of the Year on a 20-ish win team. Perhaps his talents will be more appreciated next year if the Magic can get a healthy rotation for an extended time.
Scottie Barnes, Raptors
The case: Barnes lived up to his reputation as an impact defender in his first weeks out of Florida State. His offensive skill-set came as a relative surprise. Barnes is fluid for a player of his size off the dribble both in transition and the half court, even filling point guard duties in spurts as Fred VanVleet nursed a knee injury. He bullies his way into the lane with relative ease, and while he’s not the strongest spot-up shooter, his stroke is confident when he creates for himself. Toronto continues to find talent in the draft, with Barnes joining OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam as franchise anchors selected in the last six drafts (not to mention the undrafted signing of VanVleet).
The verdict: Barnes would have a better case for this award if he was the only lottery rookie shining on a playoff team. Mobley is doing just that with a better statistical profile, likely leaving Barnes to settle for All-Rookie honors.
Jalen Green, Rockets
The case: Green’s difficult first portion of the season now looks like a thing of the past as he turns in a slate of impressive scoring performances. Green is averaging 19.1 points per game since the calendar turned to February, including a 32-point outburst in Wednesday's win over the Lakers. Green is one of the league’s most explosive guards when he attacks the rim, and he’s increasingly comfortable scoring over and around defenders (as Carmelo Anthony learned Wednesday). An intriguing comparison is Anthony Edwards, who averaged 23.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting across the final 25 games of his first season after a middling start.
The verdict: Green’s significant struggles to start the season will strike him from any real consideration for Rookie of the Year, but he should still warrant consideration when projecting the best player of the 2021 class. Don’t discount an outside shot at Most Improved Player next season.
Best of the Rest
Oklahoma City's Josh Giddey would have likely replaced Green on this list if I had any real confidence he was playing again this season. Jones (Pelicans) and Ayo Dosunmu (Bulls) deserve plaudits for their defensive excellence, though neither boasts the scoring totals to warrant consideration. And as for the ever-delightful Jonathan Kuminga, don’t worry, his time in the spotlight will come. Golden State’s rookie remains one of the league’s most intriguing young talents, one who could emerge as one of the top players in this class in the coming seasons.
