The stock chart for Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) tells one story, but the activity on the factory floor tells a completely different one. As we enter mid-February, shares of the electric air taxi pioneer are trading near $9.88.
This reflects a decline of approximately 25% since the year began, a drop that has rattled retail investors who are watching the company burn cash while they await the launch of commercial flights. However, a significant announcement released on Feb. 17 signals that the company is finally shifting gears from a research startup to a serious industrial manufacturer within the aerospace sector.
Joby revealed updated plans to double its manufacturing capacity, officially targeting a production rate of four aircraft per month by 2027. While the number four might sound small to an automotive investor, in the world of aerospace, that rate represents a leap forward.
The critical detail for investors isn't just the target number; it is the method Joby is using to achieve it. The company is not doing this alone. It is deploying nearly 200 engineers from Toyota (NYSE: TM) directly into its facilities to oversee the expansion. This move suggests that the primary risk for Joby is no longer whether it will fly, but rather whether it can build thousands of aircraft without going broke.
The Toyota Production System Arrives
For years, the partnership between Joby and Toyota was viewed mainly as a financial lifeline. Toyota has invested nearly $900 million in the startup, providing the capital necessary to keep the lights on during the expensive research and development phase. But the Feb. 17 update changes the nature of this relationship from passive investment to active management.
The deployment of approximately 200 Toyota engineers to Joby’s pilot production line in Marina, California, and its future high-volume facility in Dayton, Ohio, represents a massive transfer of intellectual property. These engineers are tasked with implementing the Toyota Production System (TPS).
For those unfamiliar with manufacturing, TPS is the gold standard of global efficiency. It focuses on three core pillars:
- Just-in-Time Production: Reducing inventory costs by having parts arrive exactly when needed.
- Jidoka (Automation with a Human Touch): Designing machines that stop automatically when a defect is detected, preventing bad parts from moving down the line.
- Kaizen (Continuous Improvement): A culture where every worker is empowered to suggest changes to speed up the process.
This logic, translated to the aerospace industry, could result in a significant competitive advantage. Traditional aviation manufacturing is bespoke, incredibly slow, and expensive. By adopting automotive-grade efficiency, Joby aims to drastically lower the unit cost of each aircraft.
If it can produce four aircraft a month by 2027 with low defect rates, Joby will create a path to profitability that competitors relying on standard aerospace methods will struggle to match. This operational moat is difficult to quantify on a balance sheet today, but it is the foundation for future earnings.
The Price of Ambition
Building a factory and hiring hundreds of specialized engineers is expensive. This reality hit shareholders hard in late January 2026, when Joby executed a capital raise totaling approximately $1 billion through a mix of new stock and convertible bonds.
The market reacted negatively to the news, driving the stock price down roughly 17% in a matter of days. This reaction is driven by dilution: when a company issues new shares, existing shares represent a smaller share of the pie, which often lowers the price in the short term.
However, in the capital-intensive world of aerospace, cash is oxygen. Following the raise, Joby’s cash reserves sit well above $1 billion. This war chest is critical for two reasons:
- Burn Rate: The company reported a net loss of approximately $401 million in the third quarter of 2025. Without the January capital injection, the aggressive manufacturing targets announced this week would be mathematically impossible.
- Infrastructure: The funds directly support the acquisition and tooling for the 700,000-square-foot facility in Dayton, Ohio.
Investors must weigh the pain of short-term dilution against the risk of insolvency. The electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) sector is littered with companies running low on funds. By securing this capital now, Joby has purchased the runway needed to survive until commercial revenues begin. The drop in share price was essentially the price of admission to ensure the company remains solvent through the critical 2026-2027 ramp-up phase.
Volatility vs. Viability
The road ahead remains volatile. While the 2027 manufacturing targets provide a clear destination, the company still needs to execute its immediate commercial launch. Joby is targeting the start of passenger services in Dubai in 2026, followed by operations in New York and Los Angeles in partnership with Delta Air Lines.
Despite the current bearish sentiment and a Reduce consensus rating from some analysts, the average price target sits at $13.21. This suggests a potential upside of more than 30 percent from current levels ($9.88). This disconnect suggests that while Wall Street is cautious about the specific timeline, it recognizes the value of the underlying assets.
For the investor, the thesis is straightforward: The recent stock price decline is a backward-looking reaction to financing, while the Toyota integration is a forward-looking signal of viability.
Joby is trading stock volatility for operational stability. If the company can hit its target of four aircraft per month by 2027, the current share price may eventually look like a discount on a major industrial player.
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The article "Made by Toyota: Joby Aviation Targeting 4 Aircraft Per Month" first appeared on MarketBeat.
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