French voters go to the polls tomorrow to choose their President… and it will go right down to the wire.
After a tight first round when half the nation backed candidates who didn’t make the final cut, sitting leader Emmanuel Macron faces an even tighter race against far-right National Rally’s Marine Le Pen in a repeat of the 2017 run-off.
Nowhere is it tighter than in Lille. This industrial city near the Belgian border is a key “swing state”.
One in four live below the poverty line here so discontent over immigration and the cost of living helped Le Pen top the local first-round vote.
But many, especially on the left, say the choice between her and Macron is like having to vote for either the plague or cholera. “It’s a bad choice,” says office worker Emilie, 24. “I don’t trust either.”
Her view is common in this hyper-marginal constituency. Retail worker Irene, whose family came here from Senegal, West Africa, said: “I don’t like Le Pen but I don’t think Macron will change anything if he stays.”
With a million votes up for grabs here, the verdict of Lille’s working-class could be decisive.
Dr Françoise Boucek, an expert in French politics at Queen Mary University in London, says: “In places like Lille, it’s all about who can appeal to those who feel left behind by the elite in Paris.”
Migration is the dividing issue in the south, which has higher levels of foreign workers. Le Pen previously called for a ban on free movement and for “Frexit” (France quitting the EU).
Le Pen’s links to Russian President Vladimir Putin have also been a hot issue and in a TV debate on Thursday, Macron told her: “When you talk to Russia, you’re talking to your banker.”
Le Pen’s party has taken millions from Moscow but she denies it compromises her opposition to the war in Ukraine. Her rejection of plans to cut imports of Russian oil and gas could also appeal to voters hit by soaring bills.
“I will vote for Le Pen,” one veteran left-winger told me. “I always vote communist, but we’re paying more for things and earning less than ever. Something needs to change.”
Hours before polls opened, Ipsos France said Macron was pulling ahead with 55% of votes against Le Pen’s 45%.
But with one in six saying they won’t show up to vote, victory could hinge on some last-minute decisions.
Yesterday, Macron urged people to vote so they don’t “wake up with a hangover”. If successful, he will be the first French president in 20 years to win a second term.
