French President Emmanuel Macron met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Monday at the start of a week of intense diplomacy over fears Russia is preparing an invasion of its pro-Western neighbour Ukraine. Moscow calls the fears "hysteria", but just how worrying is the build-up of Russian troops?
Macron told Putin on Monday he hoped talks in Moscow could lead to an easing of tensions over Ukraine.
"This discussion can make a start in the direction in which we need to go, which is towards a de-escalation," Macron said at the start of the meeting in Moscow.
He added that he hoped to "avoid a war" and "build elements of confidence, stability and visibility for everyone".
Putin, meanwhile, hailed France's efforts to strengthen European security as he hosted French leader Emmanuel Macron for talks.
"I see how much effort the French leadership is making to resolve the issue of security in Europe ... namely to resolve the crisis in the south-east of Ukraine," Putin told Macron at the start of the talks.
Welcoming Macron as "dear Emmanuel", Putin said Russia and France have "shared concerns regarding security in Europe" and hailed "how much effort the current French leadership is making" to resolve these concerns.
With tens of thousands of Russian troops camped near the Ukrainian border, Macron was the first top Western leader to meet Putin since the crisis began in December.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with US President Joe Biden in Washington, as Western leaders look to maintain a united front in their biggest showdown with Russia since the end of the Cold War.
On Tuesday, Macron will meet with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymir Zelensky in Kyiv.
Russia denies invasion plans
Russia points out that it holds military exercises which rotate each year between four strategic theatres.
They are called “Zapad” (“West,” 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021) "Vostok" (“East,” 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022), "Tsentr" (“Centre,” 2011, 2015 and 2019) and "Kavkaz" (“Caucasus,” 2012, 2016 and 2020).
Troop numbers vary from just over 12,000 to more that 300,000 soldiers. Over the last decade, armies from friendly countries such as China, Pakistan and the Central Asian states were invited to take part as well.
During the cold war, the then Soviet Union carried out yearly “Zapad” (“West”) exercises together with its allies of the Warsaw Pact. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, “Zapad” exercises were reduced to only Russia and Belarus – and continue today.
In 2018, Russia held its largest military exercises since the cold war, Vostok 2018, involving 300,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft and 900 tanks while a flotilla of warships was exercising in the Mediterranean off the coast of Syria, host to Moscow’s naval base in Tartus.
In Tsentr 2019, 128,000 troops took part, and in last year’s Zapad 200,000.
Smaller exercises, like “Union Shield 2015” together with Belarus are also frequently held, as well as the “Slavic Brotherhood” exercises where Serbia joins in as well.
Union Courage 2022
The reported troop buildup near the Ukraine border does not fit the pattern, as the regular exercises take place in September.
As a result, they send jitters through Western governments, which fear it may be a sign of a looming invasion. But from the Russian side, there is no talk of war.
This year, Russia and Belarus, in a strategic alliance called the “Union State”, will hold over 20 joint exercises, according to the Russian Defence Ministry.
Official Russian dispatches say the massive buildup is called “inspection of the Reaction Force of the Union State” and includes “training” exercises by S-400 anti aircraft missile systems in Brest, near the Polish border.
There are also joint Russian-Belarus air patrols with Sukhoi SU-30SM fighter jets “in the Kaliningrad Region”, the small Russian enclave between EU member states Lithuania and Poland.
A first stage, starting 9 February, sees a “redeployment” of Russian forces in Belarus. The “second stage” (10-20 February) goes by the name “Union Courage 2022”, and is aimed “against external aggression” and “countering terrorism and protecting the interests of the Union State.”
Hysterics?
Invasion into Ukraine? “Hysterics,” says Russia – a scenario which is repeated from 2017 when Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitri Peskov complained about the west “whipping up hysteria” after Nato allies reacted to the then "Zapad 2017" exercises.
As for the numbers of the current exercise, western reports mention over 100,000 Russian troops being gathered at the border between Russia/Belarus and Ukraine.
However the Russian Defence Ministry hasn’t put a figure on it, saying the number of participants and weapons systems “do not exceed stipulations set by the 2011 Vienna Document,” which requires the presence of observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
Full-scale attack
Washington and most of its Nato allies don't trust this.
US officials said if Moscow does opt for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital Kyiv and topple Zelensky in a matter of 48 hours.
They estimated such an attack would leave 25,000 to 50,000 civilians dead, along with 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian ones.
It could also trigger a refugee flood of one to five million people, mainly into Poland, the officials added.
Biden has decided to send American forces to bolster Nato's eastern flank, with the first contingent of US soldiers arriving in Poland on Saturday.
(With agencies)
