As not every player who moves from one club to another within the same league is a rip-roaring success, it’s very difficult to know how someone will perform if moving up a level or from another country.
This is not something which has unduly concerned Liverpool in recent years. They have had great success with players such as Andy Robertson and Gini Wijnaldum who they purchased from recently relegated Premier League clubs, and others have joined from overseas and slotted into the side almost seamlessly.
Their business this summer looks set to put this issue to the test once more. However, statistical analysis – which remains the bedrock of how the Reds analyse and scout players – suggests that Kopites need not fear about how the likely Liverpool new boys will perform in the English top flight next season.
READ MORE: Darwin Nunez £85m transfer confirmed as Liverpool wages, contract clauses and fee explained
IN HIS OWN WORDS: Darwin Nunez talks on Liverpool, Anfield, Jurgen Klopp and 'monsters' in attack after completing transfer
DARWIN NUNEZ SIGNING: Live reaction as Liverpool confirm £85m deal
The first confirmed signing of the current transfer window was Fabio Carvalho from Fulham, who has played almost all of his senior football at Championship level. This is not a market the Reds have mined too often under FSG. Kaide Gordon came from Derby while defender Ben Davies (who is still yet to make his Liverpool debut) joined from Preston, but neither was expected to immediately contribute to the same extent as Carvalho will be next term.
There’s reason to believe the 19-year-old will do well in the Premier League, and not simply because he amassed 10 goals and eight assists in the second tier this season. Player analysis website smarterscout uses data to assess how a player will perform in any one of 55 leagues around the world. Their prognosis for Carvalho is very encouraging.
Back in January when Liverpool’s interest was first revealed, smarterscout compared his 2021/22 season with Diogo Jota’s final campaign in the Championship and noted their data in the central attacking midfield and second striker positions looked incredibly similar. Shortly prior to Jota’s move from Wolves, they also tweeted that “we don't think there's a better *all-around* second striker in the Premier League.”
Whether the Reds’ number 20 has lived up to that lofty claim is up for debate but a record of a goal or assist every 130 minutes for Liverpool means it’s not a baseless assertion either. And though smarterscout won’t get every assessment they make correct, they are similarly confident about Carvalho’s ability to thrive in the Premier League.
While the transfer has not yet been completed, the Reds are also looking to sign right-back Calvin Ramsay from Aberdeen. As much as football north of the border is on the rise, with Scotland ninth in UEFA’s ranking of association club coefficients, as with Carvalho it would be a step up in standard for the 18-year-old should he join Liverpool. Once again, smarterscout are impressed though, claiming that Ramsay is “already above average for attacking output and defending quality at a Premier League standard.”
These findings should hearten any Kopite who would prefer their club to invest in what they perceive to be guaranteed superstars rather than some of the best young players on offer from lower standard leagues. But although he will cost far more, Darwin Nunez arguably falls into this category too.
After all, Portugal is not one of Europe’s recognised top five leagues and he has only enjoyed one outstanding campaign in the Primeira Liga. Not that Smarterscout hold too many concerns, with Nunez’ attacking output score of 82 trumping what Jota offered with Wolves (79).
Even more significantly, their model shows he has an expected goal difference against replacement (an average Premier League player) of +0.04. Although this doesn’t sound like much, it’s better than five of Liverpool’s starting XI from the FA Cup final, including Sadio Mane whom the Uruguayan may end up replacing.
Considering the success their purchases have had, it’s safe to assume that Liverpool utilise a similar player analysis tool to that which smarterscout have devised. If that’s the case, then the latter’s analysis suggests the Reds are going to have yet another excellent transfer window.
