Local council elections never have just one story – in each local council, different issues, candidates and parties dominate the debate. But there is no doubt that this year’s council elections in New South Wales have been hard for the Liberal party, with failing nominations and loss of support in various large councils.
The Liberal party’s failure to correctly submit nomination forms for almost a third of their candidates has been the biggest story of the campaign – and it continued into the results. Indeed, it will shape local government for the next four years in the most-affected areas.
The party’s nomination stuff-up spiral affected more than 50 winnable seats, and 41 seats won by Liberal candidates in 2021 went to others on Saturday night solely because of nomination problems.
While the administrative bungle didn’t impact Liberals in all areas, even where candidates were nominated, there were few bright spots.
The party won a majority on Ryde council, easily winning the first direct mayoral election in that council’s history. They also returned to Parramatta but largely did so by displacing other rightwing councillors without making a dent in the progressive majority first elected in 2021.
In Liverpool, the Liberal mayor, Ned Mannoun, looks likely to be re-elected after the council came close to being sacked immediately before the election. He will still face a public inquiry– but with a fresh mandate from local voters. This likely wasn’t the good news story the Liberal party hoped for.
The party also looks likely to lose its majority in Sutherland, after deselecting the mayor and deputy mayor, which led to them running as independents.
Labor had a few big wins. It has taken a majority in Wollongong after the independent lord mayor Gordon Bradbery’s retirement. They have also won a majority in Penrith entirely thanks to the failure of any other candidate to nominate in the East Ward. Labor will also return to power in Campbelltown after being locked out of the mayoralty in 2021.
The ALP will be less happy with their results in other councils. In Newcastle, the lord mayor, Nuatali Nelmes, is in serious danger of losing her job – and the Labor majority. The party has also lost its majority in Cumberland and Canterbury-Bankstown.
Labor did win a handful of extra council seats thanks to the Liberal nomination bungle but it made a bigger difference for others.
The Libertarian party, particularly, benefited. The rightwing minor party ran more candidates than any other party outside of Labor, Liberal and the Greens – and in wards where no Liberal was standing the Libertarian appears to have gained most of the Liberal vote.
They will have seats in Camden, Penrith, Canterbury-Bankstown and the MidCoast – none of which are places they would have likely won in normal circumstances.
Indeed, on the MidCoast Council – which covers regional centres like Forster-Tuncurry and Gloucester – the Libertarian party has won three seats and is the largest grouping on the council.
The Greens also had good results in suburbs outside of their inner-city heartland. The Greens appear to have won their first seats in Blacktown and Cumberland and won more seats than ever before in Bayside, Campbelltown, Parramatta and Wollongong.
But the Greens performance was less impressive in the Inner West, where Labor has maintained their council majority despite the Liberal party returning to the area.
Finally, the City of Sydney has returned Clover Moore for a sixth term after 20 years in power, but less emphatically than her past five victories.
Moore is polling under 37% on the lord mayoral ballot, down from 43% in 2021 and 58% in 2016. But with no one else exceeding 20%, she shouldn’t have trouble staying ahead.
Her party has lost support on the council ballot and will only win three seats in addition to Moore’s mayoral seat. Her party has won four or five seats at every election since she first won in 2004, but with just three she won’t control a majority around the council table and will need to work with other parties more than in the past.
Voters have sent a signal to Moore and her allies – they aren’t throwing her out of power yet but she doesn’t have the broad and deep support she once did and her team will need to turn their mind to a successor in this next term.
Ben Raue is an electoral analyst and blogger who writes about elections in Australia at www.tallyroom.com.au
