Leo Varadkar has said that Irish unification could fall off the agenda for a long time if a border poll was held and defeated.
The Taoiseach said that the same had happened in places such as republican Australia and Quebec in Canada, and said that if it was held and failed, it would cause further division in Northern Ireland.
He also said that although independence is still being discussed in Scotland following a vote against it in 2014, he questioned whether support in favour of constitutional change was any more likely there than before.
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“I don’t think it’d be a good idea, certainly not at this point in time,” he said of a border poll, echoing similar comments he had made last summer.
He outlined this stance despite admitting to supporting Irish unity.
“I think the difficulty with the border poll is it would certainly be divisive in Northern Ireland, but it would also probably be defeated in Northern Ireland.
“If you look at what the Good Friday Agreement says, it makes provision for a border poll, makes provision for a referendum on unification, but it says in the Good Friday Agreement that it should only happen when there’s actually a stage (when) Northern Ireland has formed the opinion that it might pass.”
He said that recent Assembly and local election results in Northern Ireland and opinion polls “don’t show a majority for unification”.
He added: “The biggest difficulty of a referendum or a border poll that would be unsuccessful, would be that it would probably take the issue off the agenda for a long period of time.
“So once lost, you have the division that’s caused by the referendum, and then you don’t have the outcome you want.
“So I really think that if we’re ever going to have a border poll, or when there’s a border poll, it should be done at a time – first of all, when we believe that there’s a good chance of succeeding both north and south, but also secondly, when we’ve worked out the proposal as to what’s being put to the people.”
Responding to the comments, Sinn Fein vice president Michelle O’Neill said that his energy would be better placed in preparing for the possibility of unification and repeated the party’s call for a citizens’ assembly on the issue to be established.
“I think the Taoiseach should roll up his sleeves and get to work around the preparation and planning for constitutional change,” she said.
“Let’s have a really healthy, informed debate around what the future could look like, how it could be better for everybody who shares this island.
“I would encourage the Taoiseach to actually take a roll of responsibility in terms of planning for constitutional change, have the Citizens’ Assembly, let’s talk about the health service in the event of constitutional change, let’s talk about what education looks like, what the economy looks like, the benefits that it could bring, I think that’s where his energy should be better placed.”
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