Saturday's win against Watford, coupled with Burnley losing to Norwich City did a lot for Leeds United when it comes to their chances of avoiding relegation from the Premier League. Before the weekend, Burnley were given a 38% probability of relegation, with the Whites at 24%. After the Watford and Norwich results, Leeds' probability was reduced to only 10%, with Burnley rocketing to a 61% chance of dropping into the Championship.
That's according to the data analysts at Fivethirtyeight, who use an algorithm to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times. They use team ratings based on expected goals as well as goals scored and conceded and they have the Whites predicted to finish on 38 points.
Meanwhile, Burnley are predicted to finish five points behind, on 33. Leeds have already picked up that amount of points, so should the prediction be correct, Leeds will only need one more point to secure their safety in the top division of English football for a third season.
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With Watford and Norwich highly unlikely to escape from relegation places, Leeds, Burnley and Everton are the three in any danger of being relegated in 18th place. Leeds are now in the strongest position, with Burnley looking like being the third relegated team. However, should Burnley escape, it is Everton who are more likely to be caught rather than Jesse Marsch's side.
Everton are predicted to finish on 36 points, so their margin for error is very slim with only a three-point gap predicted over Burnley. This leaves them with a 32% probability of relegation.
However, Everton and Burnley play twice and three times respectively before Leeds face Crystal Palace on April 25. Should they pick up unexpected wins in those games, the predicted points total needed for safety could shift.
